RBA Signals Possible March Rate Hike as Energy Risks Threaten Inflation Outlook

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock has signaled that the central bank could raise interest rates again as soon as its March 17–18 meeting, even without waiting for first-quarter inflation data. Speaking at a business summit in Sydney, Bullock emphasized that the upcoming policy decision will be a “live meeting,” underscoring the RBA’s readiness to act swiftly if inflation pressures persist.

Bullock clarified that the RBA is not solely dependent on quarterly inflation figures when determining monetary policy. With inflation and employment conditions described as “tight,” the central bank is closely monitoring whether it needs to move more quickly to maintain price stability. The comments have intensified market expectations of a potential rate hike, particularly after the RBA increased the cash rate by 25 basis points in February to counter a late-2025 rebound in inflation.

Australia’s core inflation is projected to rise above the RBA’s target range of 2% to 3% this year. The central bank has already warned that inflation is likely to decline at a slower pace than previously anticipated. Adding to these concerns are escalating energy prices linked to the worsening U.S.-Iran conflict. Bullock cautioned that energy-related supply shocks could further fuel inflation and risk lifting inflation expectations, complicating the RBA’s policy outlook.

Addressing the RBA’s dual mandate of inflation control and full employment, Bullock acknowledged that a more aggressive response to inflation was possible but would have come at the cost of higher unemployment. For now, the central bank appears more focused on curbing inflation, which it views as the more immediate economic threat.

On the topic of artificial intelligence, Bullock noted that AI-driven job losses have been limited so far and are expected to remain minimal over the next year. However, she acknowledged uncertainty about AI’s long-term impact on employment across various sectors.

Investors and businesses will be closely watching the March meeting for further guidance on Australia’s interest rate outlook and monetary policy direction.