Pace of U.S. private-sector job gains to hold steady in September

Despite its admittedly spotty record in predicting the official government series, ADP Research Institute's private payroll tally could color market expectations heading into the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' September report. 

With the average levels of both initial and continuing jobless claims little changed from those prevailing heading into the August report, net new job creation probably remained steady at 190,000 last month. That gain likely will be fueled once again by increased hiring by small and medium employers, says Societe Generale. 

Since the trough of the Great Recession, 11.8 million private-sector jobs have been added, according to ADP. Small (less than 50 workers) and medium-sized (50 to 499 employees) concerns have accounted for almost 80% of that gain (see accompanying chart). Larger entities, employing at least 500 workers, have added 2.4 million jobs since June 2009, recouping all but a fraction of the jobs lost in the last cyclical downturn.