Oil Prices Surge Amid Israel-Iran Tensions and Supply Disruption Fears

Oil prices jumped in early Asian trading Monday after renewed military strikes between Israel and Iran sparked fears of a wider Middle East conflict and potential disruptions to global oil supply. Brent crude rose $1.70 (2.3%) to $75.93 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $1.62 (2.2%) to $74.60. Earlier in the session, both benchmarks had surged over $4. On Friday, they closed up 7%, with intraday gains exceeding 13%—the highest levels seen since January.

The latest exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran resulted in civilian casualties and intensified concerns of a broader regional war. Both sides issued warnings to civilians, further escalating tensions. The Strait of Hormuz—a strategic chokepoint for global energy flows—is now at the center of attention. Roughly 18 to 19 million barrels of oil and fuel pass through the strait daily, accounting for about 20% of global consumption.

Iran, a key member of OPEC, produces around 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) and exports over 2 million bpd. A potential disruption in Iranian exports would significantly impact global supply. Analysts say that OPEC+, including Russia, has spare capacity roughly equal to Iran’s output, but any offset could strain global oil balances.

Despite rising global pressure, diplomatic progress appears limited. U.S. President Donald Trump expressed hope for a ceasefire but said conflict might be inevitable. Meanwhile, Iran informed mediators Qatar and Oman it won't enter ceasefire talks while under Israeli attack. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz voiced optimism that the ongoing G7 summit in Canada might help deescalate the situation.

With geopolitical tensions mounting and oil supply routes under threat, market volatility is expected to continue, keeping energy traders and global policymakers on edge.