Oil Prices Rise Amid U.S.-EU Trade Deal and China Tariff Pause Hopes

Oil prices edged higher on Monday as a newly reached trade deal between the United States and European Union, along with potential tariff relief with China, eased concerns over global economic activity and energy demand.

Brent crude futures gained 0.32% to $68.66 a barrel by 0035 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.34% to $65.38. Analysts attributed the rebound to improved market sentiment following Sunday’s U.S.-EU agreement, which imposes a reduced 15% tariff on most European goods, halving the previously threatened rate. The pact helped avert a larger trade conflict between two major economies that together account for nearly one-third of global trade.

Markets are also watching high-level U.S.-China negotiations in Stockholm aimed at extending a tariff truce ahead of the August 12 deadline, which could further stabilize global trade flows and boost oil demand forecasts.

Despite Monday’s uptick, oil prices remain pressured after settling last week at their lowest level in three weeks due to concerns over rising supply from Venezuela. State-owned PDVSA is preparing to restart joint ventures once U.S. authorizations for oil swaps are reinstated.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ is unlikely to revise its current plan to raise output by 548,000 barrels per day in August, with members seeking to regain market share amid strong summer demand. Global oil demand rose by 600,000 barrels per day in July, according to JP Morgan, while inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels per day.

In the Middle East, tensions remain high as Yemen’s Houthi forces threatened to target ships linked to Israeli ports in response to ongoing conflict in Gaza, raising geopolitical risks that could impact oil shipping routes.