OPEC+ Expected to Hold October Oil Output Steady

OPEC+ is expected to keep its oil production policy unchanged for October when members meet on Sunday, as the producer alliance shifts its focus toward establishing new output quotas for 2027.

Reuters reported that two people familiar with the discussions expect the group to pause further production increases. The potential decision comes as the ongoing war with Iran disrupts crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz, weakening the impact that OPEC+ production changes have on global oil prices and supply.

In August, OPEC+ agreed to increase production for September, completing the gradual reversal of a 1.65 million barrel-per-day supply cut introduced in 2023.

However, actual OPEC+ production remains significantly below official targets because of the conflict and disruptions affecting regional oil shipments. As a result, previous increases in production quotas have translated into smaller additions to physical crude supply than headline figures indicate.

The 21-member OPEC+ alliance, which includes members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other major oil producers, still has another layer of production cuts scheduled to remain in effect through the end of 2026.

Before deciding whether those remaining cuts should be gradually removed, OPEC+ members must assess their production capacity and establish new output baselines for 2027. These baselines are particularly important because they will determine how individual production quotas are distributed among participating countries.

Negotiations over the new production baselines are expected later this year, increasing the likelihood that OPEC+ will avoid additional output increases during the fourth quarter.

The expected October pause comes as wartime disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz reshape global oil flows. Shipping constraints are currently having a greater influence on the amount of crude reaching international markets than changes to OPEC+ production targets.

That dynamic has reduced the alliance’s traditional ability to influence crude oil prices through coordinated supply adjustments. Brent crude was recently trading around $95.85 per barrel, highlighting continued pressure on the global oil market as traders monitor both OPEC+ policy and developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.