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In October, new home prices in China experienced a notable increase, reflecting a potential shift in the property market's trajectory. According to a private survey by the China Index Academy, the average price across 100 cities rose by 0.29% from the previous month, surpassing September's growth of 0.14%. Year-on-year, prices climbed 2.08%, up from 1.85% in September.
The Chinese property sector, which once contributed approximately 25% of the nation's economic activity, has faced a prolonged downturn since 2021, significantly impacting the world’s second-largest economy. In response, authorities implemented various easing measures at the end of September, such as reducing the minimum down payment ratio to 15% for all housing categories and relaxing home purchase restrictions. These initiatives seem to have positively influenced major cities, with Shanghai reporting a significant month-on-month price increase of 1.09%.
Despite these gains, smaller cities continue to struggle. The average new home prices in these areas declined by 0.02% from the previous month, highlighting ongoing cautious buyer sentiment. Overall, new home sales by value dropped 34.7% year-on-year from January to October, though a 10.53% rise was observed in October alone.
Economists from Nomura caution that while top-tier cities may be experiencing temporary demand boosts from easing measures, sustainable recovery will require ensuring the delivery of pre-sold homes, particularly in lower-tier cities. They emphasize that direct funding support from Beijing will be essential for reversing the current slump in the property market.
