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Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is seeing shorter lead times for its latest iPhone 16 models compared to its predecessors, according to a report released Tuesday by Morgan Stanley. The note suggests improved supply for the tech giant, though the investment bank remains cautious about predicting the overall sales performance based on current data.
Shares of Apple fell nearly 1% in premarket trading on Wednesday following the report.
According to Morgan Stanley, the average lead time for the iPhone 16 in the U.S. is 15.2 days, as of September 24 — 11 days after pre-orders began, as stated also in this article from CNBC. This marks a significant decrease from the 25.7-day lead time for the iPhone 15 at the same point last year and 18 days for the iPhone 14.
Shorter Lead Times Also Evident Internationally
Ka Kit Pang, CC BY-SA 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons
The trend of shorter wait times extends beyond U.S. borders. Internationally, the average lead time for the iPhone 16 stands at 16.3 days, down from 28.5 days for the iPhone 15 during the same timeframe.
While Morgan Stanley analysts attribute these shorter lead times to an improved supply chain, they urge caution in interpreting the data. “While supply is improved, and we hear anecdotes of positive iPhone 16 demand, we still interpret these data points more cautiously,” the note reads.
Notably, lead times for the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max models are significantly shorter than in previous cycles. Currently, the iPhone 16 Pro Max has a lead time of 25.5 days in the U.S., 18 days less than the iPhone 15 Pro Max. Similarly, the iPhone 16 Pro’s lead time has shortened to 18.5 days, down from 21.5 days just last Friday.
Caution Over Predictive Sales Data
Despite the shortened lead times, Morgan Stanley warns that these early metrics lack strong predictive power for the entire sales cycle. The trajectory closely resembles past iPhone cycles, with lead times peaking around seven days after pre-orders began.
According to a reliable site, the analysts suggest a greater than 50% chance of potential iPhone production cuts in the coming weeks, a move that could impact Apple's revenue in the December quarter. They anticipate that any production revisions could materialize as early as October, potentially affecting fourth-quarter revenue forecasts.
