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Today German GDP figure was released, which showed German economy grew 0.3% in third quarter, up 1.8% from a year ago.
While the growth figure is much better than 1.6% y/y in second quarter and 1.1% in the first, a closer look reveals thanks go to migrants and German consumers.
- To provide migrants places to stay and to provide them jobs, government has been spending billions of Dollar that has boosted overall GDP.
- Final consumption expenditure growth came at 0.6% q/q, highest since fourth quarter last year.
- Government expenditure rose by 1.3% from previous quarter and up by 2.9% from a year ago, which is fastest rise in expenditure since the 2008/09 crisis.
While overall consumption remained robust, other elements have not been much of a show
- Export growth was much weaker, growing at just 0.2%. Without weaker Euro, it could have been worse.
- Investment remains weak, with gross capital formation shrank for second consecutive quarter, -0.4% in second quarter and -0.3% in third.
Looking at the detailed German GDP, it seems ECB is right in bringing out further stimulus as emerging market weakness is taking toll in Germany as well as larger Europe.
