Markets await for ECB minutes for signs

ECB's December meeting minutes are scheduled to be released on 14th Jan and markets will be looking for signs of readiness from the central bank to do more if needed. Markets are quite optimistic in this respect.

Minutes send a collective signal that is typically more powerful than any statement from a single governing council member. The minutes are an occasion for the central bank to take on the market's reaction to its latest decision and ECB watchers are again focusing on possible divisions in Frankfurt.

In separate statements central bankers have repeatedly said that the lower bound for the policy rate has not been reached "in theory". However, this cannot be taken as a statement of intent. That said, if weakness elsewhere starts materializing in Euro Area data as well, then we could see some sparks at the March meeting.

"While we think that with an inflation relapse the ECB will have to do more by the end of 2Q - and we think this would be more about QE than the repo rate - for the time being the "soft belly" of the Governing Council is probably still too relaxed about the macro situation to be looking into emergency action early in 2016." notes BoFA Merrill Lynch in a report to its clients.