Today is the final day of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) biennial summit in Algeria, where OPEC members are meeting outside their regular closed-door ones to discuss the future of the oil market. It is now clear that there won’t be any deal in Algiers with regard to production freeze against some popular expectations. However, the meeting was far from a complete waste, global producers have now come closer to a deal, which might happen later this year or the next. Below are the key takeaways,

• According to the ministers, countries inside the OPEC have now come closer in the direction of a deal.
• It is once established once more that Iran won’t be joining any production deal unless its production reaches the pre-sanction level, which would be above 4 million barrels. Iran has now reached the production level of 3.8 million barrels per day.
• A fresh new condition has been attached by Iran that it wants market share too. It wants to produce 13 percent of OPEC production, which is not unjustified given the fact that most producers in the OPEC have increase production in the absence of Iran.
• OPEC has recognized the special conditions in not only Iran but Libya and Nigeria too. This is an important understanding, given the rivalry between the Saudis and Iranians.
• Speakers at IEA summit have agreed that lower investments are worrying for future production.
• Russia is on the team for a freeze.
• Most importantly, production cuts are not off the table.

We believe the key element of the deal if its get reached, would be time. The longer the freeze, the more bullish the oil price would be. WTI is currently trading at $45.3 per barrel and Brent at $46.8 per barrel.