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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged Japan to stay alert for potential spillover effects from global market volatility, which could impact liquidity for its financial institutions. The IMF also warned of rising debt-servicing costs and potential corporate bankruptcies due to the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) interest rate hikes.
With interest rates rising, Japan's public debt costs are expected to double by 2030, emphasizing the need for a strong debt management strategy. The IMF noted that Japan must attract foreign investors and domestic institutions to meet increasing government bond issuance demands as the BOJ reduces its balance sheet.
The yen's fluctuations against the dollar, largely driven by U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials and yen carry trades, have added uncertainty. The IMF advised the BOJ to closely monitor liquidity conditions and funding rates to prevent market disruptions, particularly addressing uneven liquidity distribution among banks.
Japan remains committed to a flexible exchange rate regime, which helps absorb external shocks and supports monetary policy stability. The BOJ ended its decade-long stimulus program and raised interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5% in January, reflecting confidence in achieving its 2% inflation target.
After decades of low inflation, Japan's economy shows signs of a sustainable shift, with inflation exceeding 2% for over two years and a tight labor market driving wage growth. The IMF supports a gradual BOJ rate hike, arguing that ultra-low interest rates have prolonged unproductive firms’ survival, delaying economic restructuring. However, rapid rate increases and rising bankruptcies among small businesses could destabilize banks.
The IMF cautioned that unexpected monetary tightening or global financial shifts could heighten market volatility, disrupt the Japanese government bond market, and increase risks for banks with high exposure to interest rate fluctuations.
