Gold's Tug-of-War: Geopolitical De-escalation Fights Falling Yields as Markets Eye US CPI

Gold pared gains of more than $150 on easing US bond yields and pared some of its gains due to profit booking. Markets eye US CPI data for further direction. It hit an intraday high of $4217; it is currently at $4168.

With Brent already down around 1.5% to almost $103 after Trump declared an "energy ceasefire," albeit neither Moscow nor Kyiv had confirmed it and attacks were still reported, a credible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire—particularly an energy-infrastructure truce—would likely help to lower crude oil prices by reducing the war-risk premium and allay supply disruption concerns. Reduced oil would help to calm headline inflation and allay concerns that central banks have to maintain strict policy, therefore causing bond yields to decline as consumers price in less energy-driven inflation and a more accommodating rate trajectory; in fact, lower oil and weaker long-end yields helped gold. For gold, the effect is mixed but initially beneficial: cheaper oil lowers inflation and yield pressure, therefore boosting bullion; still, a real de-escalation lowers geopolitical safe-haven demand—so gold might rise slightly on lower yields while giving back some of its conflict premium; spot gold was around $4,200 as these forces fought.

 Near -term support -$4140.Any violation below $4140 targets $4080/$4065/$4000/$3800. Any daily close below $4075 (365 D EMA)confirms further bearishness. Near-term resistance - $4240/$4300/$4370/$4400/$4435/$4500/$4600/$4700.

 It is good to sell on rallies around $4200 with SL around  $4270 for a TP of $4000/$3800.