Global PC Market Faces 10% Decline in 2026 as AI PCs Surge

The global personal computer market is heading into a rough patch in 2026, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a 10% year-on-year drop in shipments — a steeper contraction than earlier projections suggested. Total global PC shipments are now expected to land at approximately 257 million units, down from prior estimates, as the industry navigates a perfect storm of rising component costs and a cooling upgrade cycle.

Much of the pressure stems from a demand hangover following a wave of PC upgrades in late 2025, driven largely by the Windows 10 end-of-life transition. Consumers and businesses that rushed to replace aging hardware have largely done so, leaving fewer buyers in the pipeline for 2026. Compounding the issue, memory costs have climbed sharply, squeezing margins on entry-level devices and making budget PCs less profitable to produce. Goldman's analysts noted persistent headwinds across 2026 through 2028, though a modest 2% recovery is penciled in for 2027 as inventory levels normalize.

Despite the broad market weakness, one segment is bucking the trend: AI-capable PCs. Goldman Sachs projects AI PC shipments will reach 150 million units in 2026, capturing nearly 60% of the total market. Premium, AI-integrated hardware is proving more resilient because higher price points give manufacturers room to absorb rising input costs without sacrificing margins. By 2028, AI PCs are forecast to represent over 80% of all shipments, essentially redefining what a standard PC looks like.

The shift toward AI edge computing is expected to create winners among established industry leaders. Companies like Apple, Lenovo, HP, and Dell are already repositioning their product portfolios around AI-first capabilities to tap into this higher-margin growth opportunity. For investors and industry watchers, the message is clear: the overall PC volume story is weakening, but the AI PC narrative is only getting stronger.