ECB Set to Raise Interest Rates as Energy Shock Fuels Eurozone Inflation Concerns 
Trump has made more than $1 billion from crypto in a year. How? 
South Korea Signals Possible Interest Rate Hike as Inflation Remains Elevated 
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Policy Overhaul as Hawkish Rate Outlook Rattles Markets 
USA at 250: the Black American struggle for life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness 
Central Banks Eye Gold, Reduce Dollar Exposure as AI Adoption Accelerates: OMFIF Survey 
Denmark Central Bank Intervenes to Support Krone Peg Against Euro 
In a rebuke to Trump, the Supreme Court rules that birthright citizenship is the law of the land 
Elon Musk is remaking the world, like Henry Ford before him – but more dangerously 
JPMorgan Cuts Gold Price Forecast, Sees Bullion Reaching $4,500 by End of 2026 
Vietnam’s population hit the 100 million milestone. Where’s it headed? 
New Zealand Unemployment and Inflation Debate Intensifies Ahead of 2026 Election 
We emphasize potential trading opportunities related to anomalies or dislocations in emerging market currencies.
TWD has been too strong versus rate differentials,
The TWD is more correlated to interest rate differentials than most EM currencies; the move lower in USDTWD in the past month has far exceeded levels consistent with rates.
Assuming the Fed hikes by year end (we expect a rate hike in December) or at the minimum the market continues to ascribe a decent probability to a near-term rate increase coupled with the likelihood that the CBC eases, rate differentials should move further in the USD’s favour.
Taiwan is also susceptible to renewed fears of China’s growth slowdown. While negative forward points provide positive carry in shorting the TWD.
Hence, we encourage longs in USDTWD on its attractive carry and China exposure sentiment toward EM currencies could be in the procedure of shifting and we prefer to focus on regional low yielders in expressing a bullish dollar view. The slew of hawkish commentary from Fed officials in recent weeks as put the possibility of a rate hike back in play for H2.
