FxWirePro: Safe haven sentiment lingers in bullion – Uphold longs in CME gold futures with mid-month tenors

Earlier in January, we closed our long gold trade recommendation in order to lock in profits ahead of the largely uncertain risks around Trump’s inauguration and the kick-off of his presidency. Obviously, both those immediate catalysts have passed but arguably, much of the uncertainty remains. Yet, from our perspective now, we view this lingering ambiguity as a potential extra accelerant to a near-term, fundamental-based rally in gold.

On treasuries, Fixed Income research analysts reiterate that “there is room for yields to decline over the coming weeks” given their skepticism on large-scale fiscal stimulus and the potential for growth to moderate among other drivers like seasonality and stretched investor positioning to the short side.

From an FX perspective, while long dollar positioning remains material even after the retracement lower in the dollar index YTD, our analysts believe, “the broad dollar does still seem vulnerable should Trump’s first several days in action disappoint those looking for primarily growth-friendly and reflationary policies, without stoking disruption or trade-confrontation risks.”

Combining these macro views with the general sense of uncertainty in markets (safe haven demand) and the relatively clean investor positioning in gold, compels us to recommend going long the Apr’17 CME gold contract.

We advocate initiating long Apr’17 CME gold at a spot price of $1,242.80/oz today.

Trade target is $1250 and $1,285/oz with a stop loss at $1,216/oz. 

On the Comex division of the NYME, gold futures for April delivery were down 0.28% at $1,238.05, just off Thursday’s one-week high of 1,240.70.

The April contract ended Thursday’s session 0.69% higher at $1,241.60 an ounce.