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While there is no official confirmation on the meeting between the American and Chinese leaders during the G20 Osaka meeting, the Chinese state media confirmed that the Chinese President Xi Jinping will make his first state visit to North Korea this week (20-21 June).
This marks the first visit to North Korea by a Chinese president in more than one decade. Certainly, the timing seems to be interesting as this visit will take place only one week before the G20 meeting.
In the meantime, Wilbur Ross, the US Commerce Secretary, said that the most likely outcome of the Trump-Xi summit, if it takes place, would be an agreement to actively resume talks, which is somehow in line with market expectations.
On the positive side, one might say the trade deal is still alive; however, the counter-argument is there is little progress to be seen over the foreseeable future. As such, it is hard to take a side for FX traders, which might be a reason for the extremely stable USDCNY at this juncture.
On a related note, the property prices have quickened again in May as measured on a month-on-month basis. The Chinese authorities don’t always deem this as good as the rapidly rising housing prices could fuel debt bubble concerns.
However, this time around, the property market seems to be one of the few shining spots for the entire economy, which might give the Chinese authorities some leeway when the external pressure is mounting.
Emerging Asian currencies are vigilant against possible weakness in the Chinese yuan. US President Donald Trump notified Chinese President Xi Jinping that a 25% tariff would be levied on the remainder USD325bn worth of Chinese goods if both leaders fail to meet at the G20 Summit on June 28-29. The 12M NDF outright for USDCNY has, for the first time since last November, started to test the psychologically critical 7 levels again. Courtesy: Commerzbank
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly USD spot index is inching towards 84 levels (which is bullish), while hourly CNY spot index was at -126 (highly bearish), while articulating (at 13:41 GMT).
For more details on the index, please refer below weblink: http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
