The Copper is likely to underperform on rising supply and the slowdown in China. We look ahead for gold to trade higher towards $1,400/oz near-term
We kept advocating staying longs in gold futures from last couple weeks, as we previously explained when we recommended going long Dec’16 CME gold, we believe the constructive environment for safe haven gold demand brought about by unconventional monetary policy and macroeconomic risks will only intensify over the next year and half.
Moreover, we especially see a constructive environment for gold in the first and fourth quarters of 2017 (with quarterly prices averaging $1,450/oz) as western-based safe haven demand is compounded by increased physical buying in India and China during the wedding and festival seasons.
As such, we also see attractive value in owning the Dec'17 CME gold contract, especially after prices have retraced a bit since earlier in July.
Went long Dec’17 CME gold at a price of $1,354/oz- on August 5th. Trade target is $1,384/oz first, and then at 1400 with a stop at $1310 first and then at 1286/oz.
We continue to maintain the following option positions:
Initiate long in XAU/USD 3M At the money delta put, long 6M at the money delta call and simultaneously, Short 1M at the money put with positive theta.


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