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FxWirePro- Gold Weekly Outlook

Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly chart)

 

Tenken-Sen- $1909.40

 

Kijun-Sen- $1963.90

 

Gold was the worst performer the previous week on surging US treasury yield. It hit a low of $1842.95 and is currently trading at around $1844.21.

 

US annual PCE inflation advanced 3.9% in August, in line with estimates. Every month, Personal consumption expenditure rose 0.1%, below the estimate of 0.20%.

 

US real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.1% in Q2 as expected. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits rose to 204K in the week ended September 23rd, 2023, compared to a forecast of 215000.  The University of Michigan consumer sentiment dropped to 68.1 in Sep, from 69.5 in Aug.

 

US dollar index-   Bullish. Minor support around 104.40/103.79. The near-term resistance is 107/108.

 

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in Nov increased to 30.9% from 18.3% a day ago.

 

 The US 10-year yield showed a minor pullback of 2.5% on upbeat US economic data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -46.6% from -75%.

 

 Factors to watch for gold price action-

     

   Global stock market- Bearish (positive for gold)

 

  US dollar index - Bullish (negative for gold)

 

  US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)

 

Technical:

 

The near–term support is around $1840, a break below targets of $1830/$1800. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1860 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1885/$1900/$1920.

 

 It is good to sell on rallies around $1862-63 with SL around $1880 for TP of $1800.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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