FxWirePro- Gold Weekly Outlook

Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly chart)

Tenken-Sen- $2009.16

Kijun-Sen- $1910.58

Gold prices trade lower for a third consecutive week on upbeat US economic data. The Republic and Democratic leaders have reached a tentative deal to prevent US default. It hit a low of $1936.85 yesterday and is currently trading around $1945.55.

The annual US Core PCE index jumped higher to 4.70%, compared to a forecast of 4.6%. On a monthly basis, Core PCE inflation rose 0.40%, above the forecast of 0.30%. US Q1 GDP 2023 (second reading) came at 1.3% compared to a forecast of 1.1%. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits increased by 4000 in the week ending May 20, below the estimate of 249K.

Major economic data for the day

May 30th, 2023, US CB Consumer Confidence (2 pm GMT)

 Jun `1st 2023, ADP Non-Farm employment (12:15 pm GMT)

  US ISM manufacturing PMI (2:00 pm GMT)

Jun 2nd, 2023, Nonfarm payroll  (12:30 pm GMT)

  US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 102.30/101.50. The near-term resistance is 104.20/105.

 According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in June increased to  63% from 17.40% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield continues to trade higher in hopes of a 25 bpbs rate hike by Fe in the coming months. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -75% from -108%.

 Factors to watch for gold price action-

   Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)

  US dollar index - Bullish  (negative for gold)

  US10-year bond yield- Bullish (Bearish for gold)

Technical:

The near–term support is around $1935, a break below targets of $1920/$1900.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1955, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1970/$2000/$2020/$2040/$2070/$2100/$2150.

 It is good to sell on rallies around $1955  with SL around $1970 for TP of $1920/$1900.