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The US dollar index has traded in a narrow range between 103.80 and 102.77 for the past week.
US Advance GDP grew at a faster pace at 3.3%, compared to a forecast of 2%. US flash manufacturing and services PMI in Jan came at 50.30 and 52.90 respectively, compared to a forecast of 47.6 and 51.40. US durable goods orders came unchanged in Dec. The Core PCE rose by 2.9% last month from 3.2% in Nov. It hit a low of 103.14 yesterday and is currently trading around 103.49.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in Jan unchanged at 97.9% from 97.90% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield consolidating despite upbeat US economic data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -21.1% from -53%.
Major resistance- 103.75/105
Major support- 102.70/101.60.
EURUSD-
EURUSD extended its decline after the ECB monetary policy. The central bank kept its rates unchanged without making any changes in the policy statement. ECB President Lagarde said "The consensus around the table of the Governing Council was that it was premature to discuss rate cuts," Markets expect an 80% chance of a 25 bpbs rate cut by Apr increased from 60% before the meeting.
Major resistance-1.08850,1.1000
Major support- 1.0800,1.07200
Yen-
The yen pared more of its gains despite BOJ's hawkish tilt. Any close above 148.80 confirms further bullishness.
Major Resistance- 148.80,150
Major support- 146.50,145
Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar trades higher on strong crude oil prices. The Bank of Canada has kept its rates unchanged at 5% and dovish comments from the BOC governor have pushed the pair above 1.350.
Resistance- 1.3550,1.3600
Major support- 1.3400,1.3300
Jan 30th, 2024, CB Consumer Confidence (3 pm GMT)
Jan 31st, 2024, German Prelim CPI m/m (all day)
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (1:15 pm GMT)
US Federal funds rate (7 pm GMT)
Feb 1st, 2024, BOE monetary policy (12:00 pm GMT)
US ISM manufacturing PMI (3 pm GMT)
Feb 2nd 2024, US NFP (1:30 pm GMT)
