FxWirePro- EURUSD Daily Outlook

Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)

 Tenken-Sen- 1.08693

 Kijun-Sen- 1.08936

EURUSD is trading weak for a fifth consecutive year on board-based US dollar buying. It hits a low of  1.08448 and is currently trading around 1.08865.

The US dollar gained momentum from an increase in safe-haven assets and surging US bond yields.

Major economic data to watch this week

   Aug 22nd, 2023, Existing home sales and Richmond manufacturing index (2:00 pm GMT)  

  Aug 23rd, 2023, German flash manufacturing and services PMI (7:30 am GMT)

                            UK flash manufacturing and services PMI (8:30 am GMT)

                           US flash  manufacturing and services PMI  (1:45 pm GMT)

 Aug 24th, 2023, US Core durable goods order and unemployment claims (12:30 pm GMT)  

 Aug 25th, 2023,  German IFO Business Climate (8:00 am GMT)

                                Jackson hole symposium Powell speech (2:05 pm GMT)

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep increased to 88.5% from 88% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield surged sharply and hit its highest level since 2007. The  US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -67% from -110%.

The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA,  55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart.  Any indicative break below 1.0830 confirms further bearishness: a decline to 1.0760/1.0700  is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.0920. The breach above targets 1.0950/1.1000/ 1.1070/1.1100/1.1150.

   Indicator (4-hour chart)

   CCI – bearish

  Directional movement index – Neutral

It is good to sell on rallies around 1.0900 with SL around 1.0960 for a TP of 1.0800.