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The crude oil prices have fallen 20% since early June, but impact may stay idiosyncratic for now. So far this move has been entirely idiosyncratic, with a sharp reaction in oil exporters’ currencies but little spill-over to other commodity prices, equities or other EM exchange rates.
Global oil prices continue to drop below $40 a barrel on today, after Reuters’ new survey tallying oil output from OPEC countries showed outputs for the 13-member bloc at record highs when compared to figures in recent history.
The former Gulf country’s oil officials confirmed on Monday an increase in crude production from 3.175 million barrels in June to 3.2 million barrels in July. As a result, oil sensitive currencies such as ILS, RUB and NOK are advised to be hedged their portfolios. Meanwhile, concerns over seasonality have likely also played a role in RUB’s fall.
The overall increase in global crude output has dragged oil prices down 20 pct since they broke above $50 in June.
In outright trades, we recommend:
Long PLN/HUF (target: 74, sl: 71)
Long 08-Sep-16 USD/ILS 1x1 call spread (3.88, 3.96), spot ref: 3.8511
Long 09-Sep-16 USD/RUB 1x1.5 put spread (62.50, 59.50).
Short EUR/CZK 2y forward (27-Nov-2017; entry 26.6883).
