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Crude oil showed a minor sell-off despite the weak US dollar. It hit a low of $73.79 yesterday and is currently trading around $74.51.
According to the Energy Information Association (EIA), crude inventories excluding SPR fell by 8460000 barrels to 425.2 million for the week ending Aug 23 compared to a forecast of -2.7M.
The supply disruption from Libya would prevent the further downfall of crude oil prices.
Major factors supporting higher Crude oil price
US dollar index - Bearish
US treasury yield- weak (positive for commodity market).
Major resistance- $76. Any breach above will take the commodity to the next level $78/$80. Major trend reversal only above $84.50.
The near-term support is around $74.40, any violation below targets $73.81 (61.8% fib)/$73.
Indicators (4- hour chart)
ADX- Neutral
CCI (50) - Bullish
CCI (14)- Bearish
It is good to sell on rallies around $76 with SL around $78 for TP of $71.70.
