FxWirePro- Commodity daily Update

Gold -

Ichimoku Analysis (Daily chart)

Tenken-Sen- $2038.73

Kijun-Sen- $2030.84

Gold lost its shine after strong US retail sales. It rose 0.60% m/m in Dec, compared to a forecast of 0.40%. Core retail sales ex-auto jumped 0.40% vs.0.20. It hit a low of $2001.80 and is currently trading around $2010.24.

 According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in  Jan increased to 97.40% from 95.80% a week ago.

  US dollar index-   Bullish. Minor support around 103/102.40 The near-term resistance is 103.75/104.50.

 Factors to watch for gold price action-

   Global stock market- Weak  (Positive for gold)

  US dollar index - Bullish (Bearish  for gold)

  US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)

Technical:

The near–term support is around $2000, a break below targets of $1970/$1956. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2015 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2035/$2050/$2060.

 It is good to sell on rallies around 2021-22 with SL around $2035 for TP of $1958.

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Silver-

Silver trading weak following the footsteps of Gold. The precious metal lost more than 4% in the past five days. The precious metal trades below 21 and 55- EMA and long-term MA (200- MA) in the daily chart.  Any break below  $22.45 confirms minor bearishness. A dip to $21.88/$21.25. It is facing significant resistance around $23.25. Any close above targets $23.60/$24.  

Crude oil-  

WTI crude oil prices gained more than $2 due to escalation of Middle East tension. According to the American Petroleum Institute, crude oil inventories rose by 483000 this week.

 Major resistance- $75.35/80. Significant support- $70/$68

Economic calendar

US building permits and Philly fed manufacturing  (1:30 pm GMT)