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Gold -
Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2034.09
Kijun-Sen- $2028.76
Gold pared some of its gains after weak US durable goods orders. It declined by 6.1% to $276.7 billion in Jan, well below market expectations of -4.9%. Core durable goods orders dropped to -0.30% vs. an Estimate of 0.20%. US CB consumer confidence came below the estimate of 114.80. While Richmond manufacturing remained flat in Feb. The yellow metal hit a low of $2027 at the time of writing and is currently trading around $2029.19.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in Mar increased to 97.50% from 92% a week ago.
US dollar index- Bearish. Minor support around 103.40/102.70. The near-term resistance is 104.20/105.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bearish (Bullish for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2020, a break below targets of $2010/$2000/$1970/$1956/$1930. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2042 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2060/$2070/$2080/$2100.
It is good to buy on dips around $2000 with SL around $1970 for TP of $2065/$2080.
Silver-
Silver breaks the temporary low formed on Feb 26th at $22.44 and holds below that level. It trades below 21, 55- EMA, and 200 EMA in the 4-hour chart. The near-term resistance is around $22.75 and a break above confirms an intraday bullishness. A jump to $23/$23.60/$24 is possible. Any violation below $22.20 targets $21.90/$21.40/$20.68.
Crude oil-
WTI crude oil gained momentum due to the escalation of tension in the Middle East. The recent actions by Iran supporters also pushed oil prices higher. The supply disruptions are due to ongoing strikes in the Red Sea. Any jump above $80 confirms a further bullishness.
Major resistance- $78.90/$80. Significant support- $75.70/$74.
