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FxWirePro: Buy Aussie targeting 0.87 against dollar over longer horizon

As the global commodity outlook improves after years-long supply/demand mismatch in the aftermath of the 2008/09 crisis and more so due to Chinese economic slowdown since 2013, we recommend going long in the Australian dollar as a long-term bet.

Technical:

Technically speaking, the chart clearly shows that the Australian dollar, which has been in a downtrend since 2013, has already broken above the downtrend line in February this year.  In September this year, Aussie reached a high of 0.806, which was the highest level of the currency since May 2015. It has undergone a correction since but now hovering very close to the rising uptrend line.

Fundamental:

The economy has been improving steadily over the past years, recovering from the commodity sector slump and mining bust. The Reserve Bank of Australia itself acknowledged the strength in the non-mining sector and with mining sector recovering the Australian economy set to increase the pace. For example the unemployment rate, after peaking 6.4 percent in late 2015, it has declined to 5.4 percent in October.

We would like to recommend buying Aussie at the current rate 0.763 and at dips with an initial target of 0.87 and a final target of 0.92 and stop loss for this trade should be maintained at 0.68 area for the time being.

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