FxWirePro: Bullish, bearish scenarios, key driving forces and hedging vehicles of KRW

Bearish KRW risk scenarios:

1) China growth slows more sharply than expected

2) No fiscal stimulus is delivered

3) External demand slows

Bullish KRW risk scenarios:

1) China slowdown is shallow

2) US CapEx cycle accelerates

3) Domestic fiscal stimulus is stronger than expected

Overall, our bias remains to fade weakness in KRW, as valuations remain attractive and given the potential for a new global trade and currency architecture.

KRW sentiment continues buffeted by a number of cross currents. Data momentum remains broadly positive. However, the market will clearly be watching developments in China and potential spillover effects from weaker growth momentum. At the same time, we have seen a strong rebound in US interest rates. A more hawkish Fed backdrop has the potential to boost USD sentiment against EM currencies.

Hence, we still like to uphold longs in USDKRW 3m NDFs, so, go long USDKRW 1m NDF at 1131 with a target at 1160 and a stop at 1108. The time horizon is 1-3 months and positive carry is approximately 2bp/month.