FxWirePro: Brent crude futures attempt to bounce despite gap down, OPEC may cushion prices, softer demand apprehensive

The global crude oil price rallies extended and surged today as well after Saudi Arabia mentioned producer club OPEC and Russia should restrict supplies, consequently, front-month Brent crude futures rose to $63.78. However, technically bears are still buzzing upon gap down pattern at $63.30 levels, on the flipside, bulls attempt to bounce back but no confirmation from technical indicators (refer daily chart).

While on intermediate terms, gravestone doji signaled weakness, bears nudge way below DMAs with bearish crossover, gap-down pattern threatens further slumps as both technical indicators in tandem with downswings (see weekly chart).

Fundamentally, OPEC is likely to double down: The recent move in prices, along with rising inventories in the most visible part of the market, sets the stage for OPEC and its non-OPEC partners in the declaration of cooperation to stay the course with their production target for the rest of the year when they meet in a few weeks.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih on Friday expressed his confidence in a rollover of the production cuts in the second half, with the possibility of a slight reduction in the magnitude from the first half. We expect the group to stick to its target but rein in the over-compliance seen during the past five months.

Nevertheless, the oil prices corrected sharply over the past week as the potential negative effect of rising trade tensions and soft demand signals from weekly DOE numbers weighed on a relatively upbeat market outlook on supply concerns due to tighter sanctions on Iran and a continued decline in Venezuelan production. Based on the latest balances published last month by Barclays, the weaker demand expectations on slower economic activity could lead to a $4/b downward revision to their H2’19 price forecast, all else equal. 

However, the current outlook remained unchanged as the effect of sanctions on Iranian output has been more severe than anticipated. Courtesy: Barclays

Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly EUR spot index is flashing 47 (which is bullish), while hourly USD is at 64 (bullish) at 12:45 GMT.

For more details on the index, please refer below weblink:

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