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Aussie dollar gained Tuesday on better than expected housing and private sector credit figures and the yen retraced earlier gains on household spending, industrial output and unemployment aided sentiment.
While, their current account deficit has been reduced from previous -22.6B to the current -20.8B versus forecasts at -19.3B. This improvement in CAD is major driven by exports.
The volume of exports rose 4.4% in Q1, underpinned by strong export volumes for resources (+5.6% q/q) and services (+6.1% q/q). Resource exports across the board saw strong volume increases with the exception of metals. Manufacturing exports volumes also rose while rural export volumes fell.
After the release of key partial indicators, we still expect Q1 GDP to have risen a solid 0.8% q/q and 2.9% y/y.
Wages, net exports, and public spending came out in line with our forecasts.
Once again, the volatility in GDP growth looks to have been driven by net exports. Based on today’s Balance of Payments release, it has swung from a contribution of zero in Q4 to 1.1ppt in Q1.
The volatility in the quarterly data makes it more difficult to read the underlying momentum in the economy, but annual growth of 2.9% tells a story of ongoing moderate growth.
Well, overall, the trade dropped 1.9% in Q1 to be 11.5% lower YoY.
The net income deficit widened a touch to AUD12.1bn (2.9% of GDP) from AUD11.1bn in Q4 2015.
We could foresee AUD/USD getting stuck in its 0.6936/0.7838 range, mirroring the lack of direction in front-end AU-US rate spreads.
We think the spread could narrow from both sides over the next 3m, pushing AUD/USD lower.
We also anticipate calls for two more cuts from the RBA in H1 2016 though there is a higher risk now that those cuts are delayed, whereas the speculations on Fed's rate hike on the other hand is also mounting in June.
We think the spread could narrow from both sides over the next 3m, pushing AUD/USD lower.
Hence, bidding on 1m-3m risk reversals one can buy ATM put options for hedging long term downside risks of AUDUSD.
