From last two weeks, Aussie dollar against Kiwi dollar has been gaining vigorously (about 5.64% while articulating) as both technical and fundamental indicators are still signalling buying sentiments.
But if you compare the ATM IVs with the monthly technical chart, the prevailing bullish swings may not be having the same momentum in rallies as we are seeing it right now.
ATM IVs of 1W expiries are at 10.54%, and 8.99% for 1M tenor.
Technically, we see a stiff resistance at 1.1290 and 1.1416 levels.
If IV is high, it means the market thinks the price has potential for large movement in either direction. Low IV implies the market thinks the price will not move much and so that it is beneficial for option writers.
So, the current rallies can very well be interpreted as momentary and resultant effects of RBNZ's surprising rate cut by 25bps in its monetary policy.
Hence, we recommend initiating longs in 1M ATM +0.51 delta call, 1 lot of (1%) OTM call and simultaneously short 1 lot of deep OTM call (2%) with comparatively shorter expiry in the ratio of 2:1.
The higher strike short calls because IV is reducing and it finances the purchase of the greater number of long calls (ATM calls are overpriced, so we chose 1% OTM calls as well) and the position is entered for reduced cost.
A seller wants IV to fall so the premium falls. You should also note short-dated options are less sensitive to IVs, so in this strategy we have short position suitable to both above conditions.


FxWirePro:' USD/CAD faces downside risk below 1.4000
FxWirePro:NZD/USD drifts lower, could be on verge of bigger drop
FxWirePro : USD/JPY holds near 160 as yen remains under pressure
FxWirePro- Major Crypto levels and bias summary
FxWirePro: USD/CNY hovers near 3-1/2-year low ahead of U.S. data
FxWirePro: GBP/NZD gains some upside momentum, but outlook is bearish
FxWirePro- Major Crypto levels and bias summary
AUDJPY Holds Firm Above 112 on Broad Yen Weakness: Buy Dips Toward 115
FxWirePro- Major Pair levels and bias summary
FxWirePro: AUD/USD in holding pattern as market await fresh catalyst
FxWirePro: GBP/USD trades sideways as markets await U.S. inflation and UK GDP data
FxWirePro- Major Pair levels and bias summary
JPY Currency Scoreboard: USDJPY and NZDJPY Emerge as Top Bullish Pairs to Watch
NZDJPY Bullish at 365-EMA Support: Buy Dips Toward 95 Target
FxWirePro: NZD/USD drifts lower as markets await US inflation data
FxWirePro: USD/ZAR edges higher after weak SA jobs and manufacturing data
FxWirePro: EUR/AUD dips as Aussie gains after RBA decision




