Frontier Airlines Withdraws 2025 Forecast Amid Weak Travel Demand and Trade War Fears

Frontier Group, the parent company of Frontier Airlines, has withdrawn its 2025 outlook and warned of a larger-than-expected first-quarter loss due to declining travel demand, triggered by the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. The Denver-based low-cost carrier is the second major U.S. airline after Delta Air Lines to pull its full-year forecast this week.

Citing weakened consumer demand and fare discounting across the airline industry, Frontier said it could no longer reaffirm its previous guidance. The airline had earlier predicted an adjusted profit of at least $1.00 for 2025 and breakeven earnings for the March quarter. Now, it expects an adjusted loss of $0.20 to $0.24 per share, far below analysts’ expectations of a $0.03 loss, according to LSEG data.

The escalating trade tensions under President Donald Trump have shaken investor confidence, hurting both business and leisure travel demand. As travel remains a discretionary expense, economic uncertainty has significantly impacted airline pricing power. According to the U.S. Labor Department, airfares dropped 5.3% in March, marking the steepest monthly decline since September 2021.

Frontier shares plunged 12.5% on Thursday, down nearly 50% year-to-date. Shares of other major U.S. carriers—Southwest, Alaska, Delta, United, and American Airlines—also tumbled between 10% and 14%, reflecting broader market jitters. The S&P 1500 Airlines index has fallen about 37% this year, compared to the S&P 500’s 10.4% decline.

Despite the turbulence, Frontier projects modest 5% revenue growth in Q1 and plans to adjust flight capacity cautiously. For Q2, it expects a slight year-over-year decline in available seats to stabilize fares and protect profit margins. Frontier is set to release its quarterly earnings report on May 1.