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Financial situation of Greek government likely to be complicated

  • Euro area finance ministers meet today in Brussels for the regular monthly Eurogroup meeting. 

  • No decision was taken after Greece sent its list of reforms last weekend, but discussions will resume as of tomorrow at both a technical (in Athens) and political (in Brussels) level with a view to achieve a speedy and successful conclusion of the current programme review.

  • This requires that the list of reforms put forward by the Greek government is approved, which could eventually unlock the payment of the last tranche of EUR7bn. 

  • In the meantime, reports are intensifying that the Greek government is running short of cash, in particular because of a collapse in tax receipts and repayment of maturing debt, notably to the IMF. 

  • Eurogroup Chief Dijselbloem said yesterday after the Eurogroup that "once an agreement is reached and the implementation is well off the ground, he would consider having the disbursement cut into parts". 
Barclays notes in a report on Tuesday:

It will probably take some weeks before an agreement is sufficient to pave the way for a disbursement, and we think the financial situation of the Greek government will probably be complicated, as the primary budget balance has likely fallen back in deficit as tax receipts are in free fall.

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