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The Federal Reserve and the United States dollar is expected to be the main driver for USD/CNY over the next few weeks, according to the latest research report from Commerzbank.
Recent news suggests that the Trump-Xi meeting could be further pulled back to June, which implies that a trade deal is not on the table yet.
Certainly, there are a lot more uncertainties on the trade deal, but the prolonged (probably endless) negotiation also means that the influence of the trade talks on CNY exchange rates will be diminishing for now.
The market is expected to gradually turn the focus to China’s economic health over the foreseeable future, the report added.
Overall Chinese data at the beginning of the year illustrates a rather mixed growth picture: The investment has picked up somewhat with a clear support from the easing measures, but the trade and industrial output data remained weak, reinforcing that the growth outlook looks challenging.
In this case, data released over early April will give a reality check of the soundness of Chinese economy, as well as the effectiveness of China’s policy making, Commerzbank further noted.
