BOJ’s Kazuo Ueda Signals Potential Interest Rate Hike as Economic Outlook Improves 
Fed Officials Split as Powell Weighs December Interest Rate Cut 
Kazakhstan Central Bank Holds Interest Rate at 18% as Inflation Pressures Persist 
Brazil Central Bank Plans $2 Billion Dollar Auctions to Support FX Liquidity 
FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
Singapore Maintains Steady Monetary Outlook as Positive Output Gap Persists into 2025 
Japan’s Finance Minister Signals Alignment With BOJ as Rate Hike Speculation Grows 
FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 18th March)
- March 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 1.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 98.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 3.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 96.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 9.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 90.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 13.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 86.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 17.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 82.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 19.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 80.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 26.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 73.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have significantly eased.
- The market is pricing no rate hike for 2019.
- However, the market is pricing the possibility of a rate cut with 26.4 percent probability, compared to 16.1 percent last week, and 0 percent in the week before that.
