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FX Review: Nordea

  • EUR/USD reached new lows since 2003 (1.0666) this morning, as the USD was broadly bought on the back of comments by the Fed's Fisher that a strong USD is not a concern. Isn't it? The markets start to question it. Now that ECB QE is ongoing, the focus turns to the Fed, and yesterday's data suggest that the chances of a June hike are increasing. The market is still not pricing that in fully yet.

  • EUR/SEK challenged the uptrend again, around 9.17, but the market is cautious about bringing it lower due to expectations that the Riksbank will strike back. Indeed, we have received enough comments suggesting they would, and the Riksbank expanding QE is becoming an expectation weighing on the SEK.

  • The NOK was hit hard yesterday as inflation disappointed and Brent oil prices dropped sharply to below USD 57/bbl. The upside is capped by the 100 DMA (8.72), while on the downside EUR/NOK should be supported around 8.50, which coincides with the 200 DMA.

  • USD/JPY hit a new high yesterday (122), but it didn't hold too long, as global stocks went down. The JPY is probably the only currency which is seen as "safer" than the USD right now, therefore declining stock prices should drag USD/JPY down. There are risks of a short-term correction to below 120 now. USD/JPY is in 121.30 this morning.

  • Market Data
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