Market Roundup
- Eurozone Jan 2019 HICP-x f, e, a, t flash mm decrease to -1.5 % vs previous 0.5 %
- Eurozone Jan 2019 HICP-x f,e,a&t flash yy increase to 1.1 % (forecast 1 %) vs previous 1 %
- Eurozone Jan 2019 HICP-x f&e flash yy increase to 1.2 % (forecast 1.1 %) vs previous 1.1 %
- Eurozone Jan 2019 HICP flash yy decrease to 1.4 % (forecast 1.4 %) vs previous 1.6 %
- United Kingdom Jan 2019 Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI decrease to 52.8 diff.idx (forecast 53.5 diff.idx) vs previous 54.2 diff.idx
- Eurozone Jan 2019 Markit manufacturing final PMI stays flat at 50.5 diff.idx (forecast 50.5 diff.idx) vs previous 50.5 diff.idx
- Germany Jan 2019 Markit/BME manufacturing PMI decrease to 49.7 diff.idx (forecast 49.9 diff.idx) vs previous 49.9 diff.idx
- France Jan 2019 Markit manufacturing PMI stays flat at 51.2 diff.idx (forecast 51.2 diff.idx) vs previous 51.2 diff.idx
- Italy Jan 2019 Markit/IHS manufacturing PMI decrease to 47.8 diff.idx (forecast 48.8 diff.idx) vs previous 49.2 diff.idx
- Switzerland Jan 2019 manufacturing PMI decrease to 54.3 diff.idx (forecast 55.8 diff.idx) vs previous 57.5 diff.idx (revised from 57.8 diff.idx)
- France Dec 2018 budget balance increase to -76.1 eur vs previous -95.6 eur
- Switzerland Dec 2018 retail sales yy increase to -0.3 % vs previous -0.6 % (revised from -0.5 %)
- Switzerland q1 2019 consumer confidence increase to -4 diff.idx vs previous -6 diff.idx
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The U.S. Labor Department releases nonfarm payrolls report for the month of January. The report is likely to show 165,000 jobs were added compared with an increase of 312,000 in December.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release labor force participation rate for the month of January. The rate stood at 63.1 percent in the previous month.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The U.S. Labor Department is expected to report that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.9 percent in January.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The United States' average hourly earnings are likely to rise 0.3 percent in January after climbing 0.4 percent in the month before.
- (0930 ET/1430 GMT) The Markit will release Canada's Manufacturing PMI for the Month of January. The indicator stood at 53.6 in the prior month.
- (0945 ET/1445 GMT) The NAPM-New York releases ISM-New York Index for the month of January. The index stood at 65.4 in the previous month.
- (0945 ET/1445 GMT) Financial firm Markit releases U.S. Manufacturing PMI for the month of January. The index is likely to show a final reading of 54.5 after rising 54.9 in the previous month.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is expected to report that U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index edged down to 54.2 in January from a revised 54.3 in December.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) The U.S. Census Bureau is likely to report that wholesale inventories rose 0.5 percent in November after posting a gain of 0.8 percent in the prior month
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) The Commerce Department is likely to report that U.S. construction spending increased 0.2 percent in November from after declining 0.1 percent in the previous month.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) The University of Michigan is likely to report that U.S. consumer sentiment index rose to 90.8 in January from a final reading of 90.7 in December.
- N/A Autodata Corp is expected to report that U.S. auto sales figures dropped to an annualized rate of 17.20 million units in January from 17.55 million units in December.
Key Events Ahead
- (0945 ET/1445 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan participates in moderated Q&A session before Texas Lyceum Public Conference - Austin
FX Beat
DXY: The dollar index declined on concerns that any weakness in the labour market and a fall in wage inflation would only reinforce the Fed's dovish outlook for the year. The greenback against a basket of currencies trades 0.1 percent down at 95.50, having touched a low of 95.16 on Thursday, its lowest since December 10. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at -94.22 (Slightly Bearish) by 1000 GMT.
EUR/USD: The euro rose, reversing some of its previous session losses, after data showed inflation in the 19 countries sharing the euro slowed to 1.4 percent in January from 1.6 percent a year earlier, but in line with estimates, while core CPI rose at an annualized rate of 1.1 percent from 1.0 percent. The European currency traded 0.2 percent up at 1.1467, having touched a high of 1.1514 on Thursday, its highest since Jan. 11. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at 69.10 (Bullish) by 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1481 (January 14 High), a break above targets 1.1540 (January 11 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1422 (Jan. 8 Low), a break below could drag it till 1.1370 (Jan. 17 Low).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied ahead of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls January report release, which is likely to show 165,000 jobs were added compared with an increase of 312,000 in December. The major was trading 0.05 percent up at 108.89, having hit a low of 108.49 on Thursday, its lowest since January 16. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at -94.22 (Slightly Bearish) by 1000 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and manufacturing PMI from both ISM and Markit. Immediate resistance is located at 109.39 (Jan. 17 High), a break above targets 109.88 (Jan. 18 High). On the downside, support is seen at 108.37 (Jan. 16 Low), a break below could take it lower at 107.98 (Jan. 14 Low).
GBP/USD: Sterling plunged to a near 1-week low after data showed British factories rushed to stockpile goods in January at the fastest rate since records began in the early 1990s, highlighting the degree of uncertainty across British factories as it heads towards Brexit. The major traded 0.4 percent down at 1.3059, having hit a low of 1.3043 earlier; it’s lowest since December 24. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at -191.51 (Highly Bearish) 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.3170, a break above could take it near 1.3257 (October 12 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.3021 (November 6 Low), a break below targets 1.3000. Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.5 percent down at 87.77 pence, having hit a low of 87.93, it’s lowest since Jan. 22.
USD/CHF: The Swiss franc rose, extending gains for the third straight session, as weak economic data out of China damaged risk sentiment. The major trades 0.1 percent down at 0.9928, having touched a high of 0.9994 on Tuesday; it’s highest since December 5. FxWirePro's Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at 3.65 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. On the higher side, near-term resistance is around 0.9986 January 22 High) and any break above will take the pair to next level till 1.0008 (December 5 High). The near-term support is around 0.9889 (December 7 Low), and any close below that level will drag it till 0.9840 (December 27 Low).
Equities Recap
European shares edged down as a dismal survey on Chinese factory activity and gloomy European macro data dented investor sentiment.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index eased 0.2 percent at 359.19 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index declined 0.1 percent to 1,409.94 points.
Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.6 percent up at 7,010.96 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 gained 0.4 to 18,779.13 points.
Germany's DAX rose 0.05 percent at 11,178.11 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.1 percent higher at 4,999.22 points
Commodities Recap
Crude oil prices slumped as the downbeat data from China stoked further concerns over an economic slowdown that could dent fuel demand. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.5 percent down at $60.79 per barrel by 1041 GMT, having hit a high of $62.64 on Wednesday, its highest since January 22. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.7 percent lower at $53.70 a barrel, after rising as high as $55.35 on Thursday, its highest since the November 21.
Gold prices edged lower as investors sought riskier assets amid optimism the United States and China may reach a trade deal. Spot gold fell 0.05 percent to $1,320.80 per ounce at 1043 GMT, having touched a high of $1,326.15 on Thursday, its highest level since April 26 and was set to gain 1.1 percent for the week. U.S. gold futures were down 0.2 percent at $1,317.10 per ounce.
Treasuries Recap
Germany's 10-year Bund yield was marginally higher on the day at 0.16 percent but close to 1-month lows hit a day earlier. The gap between 2 and 10-year German yields briefly touched 69.70 bps - its tightest level since late 2016.
Italy's 10-year bond yield jumped as much as 15 basis points to 2.74 percent, set for its biggest one-day jump in a month. The gap between benchmark 10-year bond yields in Italy and Germany widened to around 257 bps, its widest since mid-January and up more than 10 bps from late Thursday levels. Two and five-year Italian bond yields were also more than 10 bps higher on the day.
