Market Roundup
Eurozone Feb 2019 HICP-x f, e, a, t flash mm increase to 0.3 % vs previous -1.5 %
Eurozone Feb 2019 CPI nsa increase to 103.29 vs previous 102.96
Eurozone Jan 2019 unemployment rate stays flat at 7.8 % (forecast 7.9 %) vs previous 7.8 % (revised from 7.9 %)
Eurozone Feb 2019 HICP-x f,e,a&t flash yy decrease to 1 % (forecast 1.1 %) vs previous 1.1 %
Eurozone Feb 2019 HICP-x f&e flash yy stays flat at 1.2 % (forecast 1.1 %) vs previous 1.2 %
Eurozone Feb 2019 HICP flash yy increase to 1.5 % (forecast 1.5 %) vs previous 1.4 %
United Kingdom Jan 2019 broad money increase to 2414196 gbp vs previous 2409868 gbp
United Kingdom Jan 2019 mortgage approvals increase to 66.766 no. Of (forecast 63.4 no. of) vs previous 64.468 no. of (revised from 63.793 no. of)
United Kingdom Jan 2019 mortgage lending decrease to 3.66 gbp (forecast 3.9 gbp) vs previous 3.948 gbp (revised from 4.112 gbp)
United Kingdom Jan 2019 M4 money supply decrease to 0.2 % vs previous 0.5 % (revised from 0.4 %)
United Kingdom Jan 2019 BOE consumer credit increase to 1.095 gbp (forecast 0.8 gbp) vs previous 0.683 gbp (revised from 0.687 gbp)
United Kingdom Feb 2019 Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI decrease to 52 diff.idx (forecast 52 diff.idx) vs previous 52.6 diff.idx (revised from 52.8 diff.idx)
Italy Jan 2019 unemployment rate increase to 10.5 % (forecast 10.4 %) vs previous 10.4 % (revised from 10.3 %)
Eurozone feb 2019 Markit manufacturing final PMI increase to 49.3 diff.idx (forecast 49.2 diff.idx) vs previous 49.2 diff.idx
Germany Feb 2019 unemployment rate sa stays flat at 5 % (forecast 5 %) vs previous 5 %
Germany Feb 2019 unemployment total sa decrease to 2.236 person vs previous 2.257 person (revised from 2.263 person)
Germany Feb 2019 unemployment total nsa decrease to 2.373 person vs previous 2.406 person
Germany Feb 2019 unemployment change sa decrease to -21 person (forecast -5 person) vs previous -4 person (revised from -2 person)
Germany Feb 2019 Markit/BME manufacturing PMI stays flat at 47.6 diff.idx (forecast 47.6 diff.idx) vs previous 47.6 diff.idx
France Feb 2019 Markit manufacturing PMI increase to 51.5 diff.idx (forecast 51.4 diff.idx) vs previous 51.4 diff.idx
Italy Feb 2019 Markit/IHS manufacturing PMI decrease to 47.7 diff.idx (forecast 47.2 diff.idx) vs previous 47.8 diff.idx
Switzerland Feb 2019 manufacturing PMI increase to 55.4 diff.idx (forecast 53.6 diff.idx) vs previous 54.3 diff.idx
Switzerland Jan 2019 retail sales yy decrease to -0.4 % vs previous -0.2 % (revised from -0.3 %
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The U.S. Commerce Department releases personal income figures for December, which is expected to rise 0.4 percent from 0.2 percent in the previous month.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The U.S. Commerce Department releases the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for the month of December. The index rose at an annualized rate of 1.8 percent in the prior month, while core PCE is likely to have increased 0.2 percent after rising 0.1 percent in the previous month.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The U.S. Personal spending is likely to rise 0.3 percent in the month of December, after surging 0.4 percent in November.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) Statistics Canada is expected to report that gross domestic product increased at a 1.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter after rising at a 1.0 percent pace in the third quarter. While on monthly basis, it is likely to stay flat in December, after posting a growth of 0.1 percent in November.
- (0930 ET/1430 GMT) The Markit will release Canada's Manufacturing PMI for the Month of February. The indicator stood at 53.0 in the prior month.
- (0945 ET/1445 GMT) Financial firm Markit releases U.S. Manufacturing PMI for the month of February. The index is likely to show a final reading of 53.7 after posting similar gains in the previous month.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is expected to report that U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index eased to 55.5 in February from 56.6 in January.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) The University of Michigan is likely to report that U.S. preliminary consumer sentiment index surged to 95.7 in February, after posting a final reading of 95.5 in January.
- (1300 ET/1800 GMT) Baker Hughes reports U.S. Oil Rig Count
Key Events Ahead
- (1315 ET/1815 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks on "A View from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta" before the 35th Annual National Association for Business Economic Policy Conference in Washington.
FX Beat
DXY: The dollar index gained as better-than-expected U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter lifted yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.05 percent up at 96.25, having touched a low of 95.82 on Thursday, its lowest since February 5. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at 33.85 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT.
EUR/USD: The euro gained after data showed German jobless total fell far more than expected in February, while the unemployment rate remained at a record low. Moreover, separate data showing Eurozone inflation edged higher in February boosted the bid tone around the major. The European currency traded 0.05 percent up at 1.1374, having touched a high of 1.1419 on Thursday, its highest since Feb. 5. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at -29.48 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1417 (Jan. 25 High), a break above targets 1.1443 (Jan. 28 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1343 (10-DMA), a break below could drag it till 1.1289 (Feb. 18 Low).
USD/JPY: The dollar surged to a 2-1/2 month peak against the Japanese yen, as the U.S. Treasury yields rose after data showed U.S. gross domestic product surpassed expectations in the fourth quarter. However, concerns over U.S.-China trade talks following U.S. President Donald Trump warning undermined investor risk sentiment. The major was trading 0.4 percent up at 111.86, having hit a high of 111.93, its highest since December 20. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at -103.21 (Highly Bearish) by 1000 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures, manufacturing PMI's from both Markit and ISM, and Fed Bostic's speech. Immediate resistance is located at 112.00, a break above targets 112.60 (Dec. 20 High). On the downside, support is seen at 110.66 (Feb.28 Low), a break below could take it lower at 110.25 (Feb.15 Low).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased, extending previous session losses, after former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab stated that Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal with the European Union needs to change, particularly on the issue of the Northern Irish backstop. The major traded 0.1 percent down at 1.3245, having hit a high of 1.3350 on Wednesday; it’s highest since July 9. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at 44.29 (Neutral) 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.3362 (July 9 High), a break above could take it near 1.3424 (June 12 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.3200, a break below targets 1.3138 (Oct. 16 Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.2 percent down at 85.87 pence, having hit a high of 85.28 on Wednesday, it’s highest since May 2017
USD/CHF: The Swiss franc eased after rising to a near 4-week peak in the previous session, as the greenback surged after the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to its highest since Feb. 6. The major trades 0.1 percent up at 0.9988, having touched a low of 0.9926 the day before; it’s lowest since February 1. FxWirePro's Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at 20.80 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. On the higher side, near-term resistance is around 1.0024 (February 22 High) and any break above will take the pair to next level till 1.0054 (February 18 High). The near-term support is around 0.9921 (January 25 Low), and any close below that level will drag it till 0.9889 (December 7 Low).
Equities Recap
European shares rallied to a 5-month peak in early deals, boosted by robust corporate updates, while sterling eased on Brexit concerns.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index advanced 0.6 percent at 374.99 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index rallied 0.5 percent to 1,472.32 points.
Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.7 percent up at 7,113.38 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 surged 0.7 to 19,328.75 points.
Germany's DAX rose 1.1 percent at 11,638.89 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.8 percent higher at 5,279.80 points
Commodities Recap
Crude oil prices declined, weighed down by surging U.S. supply and concerns of global economic slowdown, however output cuts by producer club OPEC limited downside. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.3 percent down at $66.15 per barrel by 1019 GMT, having hit a low of $64.29 on Tuesday, its lowest since February 14. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.1 percent higher at $57.29 a barrel, after falling as low as $55.00 on Tuesday, its lowest since the February 15.
Gold prices slumped to a 2-week low as the dollar recouped losses on stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. Spot gold was trading 0.3 percent down at $1,309.81 per ounce at 1022 GMT, having touched a low of $1,306.07 per ounce earlier, its lowest level since Feb. 14. U.S. gold futures were down 0.2 percent at $1,313.10 per ounce.
Treasuries Recap
The U.S. Treasuries slumped during late European session Friday ahead of personal income and spending report due for December, including the core PCE deflator, scheduled to be released 13:30GMT today. Also, the country’s ISM manufacturing PMI for the month of February, due for release later today, will add further direction to the debt market. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped 2 basis points to 2.730 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields traded nearly 1-1/2 basis points higher at 3.097 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year edged 1 basis point higher to 2.522 percent.
The United Kingdom’s gilts modestly rose during Friday’s afternoon session, after the country’s manufacturing PMI for the month of February fell shy of previous reading, albeit in line with market expectations. The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilts, slipped to 1.303 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields remained nearly 1 basis point lower at 1.813 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year edged 1 basis point down at 0.820 percent
The German bunds remained tad lower during European session Friday following the improvement in the country’s unemployment statistics for the month of February, coupled with a rise in eurozone’s consumer price inflation (CPI) for the similar month. The German 10-year bond yields, which move inversely to its price, remained tad higher at 0.190 percent, the yield on the 30-year note rose nearly 1 basis point to 0.817 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year hovered around -0.538 percent.
The Japanese 10-year government bond yield hit a 2-week high on the last trading day of the week after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) said that it would adopt a reduction in the frequency of debt-buying operations in March. Further, JGBs tracked an overnight slide in the United States Treasuries amid a rally in the Tokyo equities market. The yield on the benchmark 10-year JGB note, which moves inversely to its price, rose nearly 1-1/2 basis points to -0.013 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year also surged 1-1/2 basis points to 0.619 percent while the yield on short-term 2-year hovered around -0.145 percent.
The Australian government bond slumped during Asian trading session Friday tracking a similar movement in the United States’ counterpart as stronger-than-expected U.S. Q4 GDP growth boosted investors risk-taking appetite. Although real GDP growth slowed in the fourth quarter, the stronger-than-expected outturn should alleviate some concerns that the economy is in serious trouble. The U.S. GDP rose by an annualised 2.6 percent in Q4 versus consensus expectations of a 2.2 percent increase and following an increase of 3.4 percent in Q3. The yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to its price, rose 4-1/5 basis points to 2.15 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year bond jumped 3 basis points to trade at 2.71 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year climbed 2-1/2 basis points to 1.74 percent.
