Market Roundup
•UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q1): 5.9%, 0.4% forecast, -1.9% previous.
•UK Construction Output (YoY) (Mar): 1.4%, 1.2% forecast, 1.4% previous.
•UK Construction Output (MoM) (Mar): 0.5%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q1): 0.7%, 0.6% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q1): 1.3%, 1.2% forecast, 1.5% previous.
•UK GDP (MoM) (Mar): 0.2%, 0.0% forecast, 0.5% previous.
•UK GDP (YoY) (Mar): 1.1%, 1.0% forecast, 1.4% previous.
•UK Index of Services: 0.7%, 0.7% forecast, 0.6% previous.
•UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar): -0.7%, -0.6% forecast, 1.7% previous.
•UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar): -0.7%, -0.9% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Mar): -0.8%, -0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous.
•UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar): -0.8%, -0.8% forecast, 2.4% previous.
•UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Mar): 0.7%, 0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous.
•UK Trade Balance (Mar): -19.87B, -19.10B forecast, -20.96B previous.
•UK Trade Balance Non-EU (Mar): -6.83B, -8.85B previous.
•German WPI (YoY) (Apr): 0.8%, 1.3% previous.
•German WPI (MoM) (Apr): -0.1%, 0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous.
•Swiss PPI (MoM) (Apr): 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•Swiss PPI (YoY) (Apr): -0.5%, no forecast, -0.1% previous.
•French CPI NSA (MoM) (Apr): 0.60%, 0.50% previous.
•French CPI NSA (YoY) (Apr): 0.80%, 0.80% previous.
•French CPI (MoM) (Apr): 0.6%, 0.5% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•French CPI (YoY) (Apr): 0.8%, 0.8% forecast, 0.8% previous.
•UK Labour Productivity (Q4): -0.5%, -2.1% previous.
•UK Labour Productivity (Q4): 0.7%, 0.7% forecast, -1.1% previous.
•EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q1): 0.6%, 0.8% forecast, 0.7% previous.
•EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1): 0.3%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•EU Employment Overall (Q1): 169,974.4K, 169,454.4K previous.
•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q1): 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q1): 1.2%, 1.2% forecast, 1.2% previous.
•EU Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar): 3.6%, 2.5% forecast, 1.0% previous.
•EU Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar): 2.6%, 1.9% forecast, 1.1% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,890K forecast,, 1,879K previous.
•12:30 US Core PPI (YoY) (Apr): 3.1% forecast, 3.3% previous.
•12:30 US Core PPI (MoM) (Apr): 0.3% forecast, -0.1% previous.
•12:30 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr): 0.3% forecast,0.5% previous.
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 229K forecast, 228K previous.
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 227.00K previous.
•12:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May): -8.20 forecast,, -8.10 previous.
•12:30 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May): -11.3 forecast, -26.4 previous.
•12:30 US Philly Fed Business Conditions (May): 6.9 previous.
•12:30 US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (May): 2.00 previous.
•12:30 US Philly Fed Employment (May): 0.2 previous.
•12:30 US Philly Fed New Orders (May): -34.2 previous.
•12:30 US Philly Fed Prices Paid (May): 51.00 previous
•12:30 US PPI (YoY) (Apr): 2.5%forecast, 2.7% previous
•12:30 US PPI (MoM) (Apr): 0.2% forecast,, -0.4% previous.
•12:30 US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Apr): 0.1% previous.
•12:30 US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Apr): 3.4% previous.
•12:30 US Retail Control (MoM) (Apr): 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•12:30 US Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr): 60% previous.
•12:30 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr): 0.0% forecast, 1.4% previous.
•12:30 US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Apr): 0.8% previous.
•12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Mar): -1.8% forecast,, 0.2% previous.
•12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Mar): -0.4% forecast,, 0.3% previous.
•13:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate (Apr): 77.8% forecast,, 77.8% previous.
•13:15 US Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr): 1.34% previous.
•13:15 US Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr): 0.2% forecas,, -0.3% previous.
•13:15 US Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Apr): -0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•14:00 US Business Inventories (MoM) (Mar): 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•14:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index (May): 40 forecast, 40 previous
•14:00 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Mar): 0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous
•14:00 US Natural Gas Storage: 111B forecast, 104B previous.
•14:00 US 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.225% previous.
•14:00 US 8-Week Bill Auction: 4.225% previous.
•14:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2): 2.3% forecast,, 2.3% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 14:00 BoE MPC Member Dhingra Speaks
• 20:30 US Fed's Balance Sheet 6,711B
• 20:30 US Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Thursday as the U.S. dollar dipped ahead of a key U.S. data, which is expected to provide cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. The spotlight is now on the U.S. producer price index (PPI) data, due at 1230 GMT, following the softer-than-expected consumer data.Fed policymakers are leaving interest rates where they are while they try to assess how U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and trade negotiations will affect prices and the economy. So far, the hard data is giving them little to go on. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also set to deliver a speech later in the day.Markets are expecting 50 basis points of Fed interest rate cuts this year, starting from October instead of July, as previously anticipated. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1263(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1392(May 6th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1065(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1000(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after data revealed the UK economy grew more than expected in the first quarter, reducing the likelihood of imminent interest rate cuts by the Bank of England. According to official figures, GDP rose by 0.7% between January and March, a notable rebound from the 0.1% growth recorded in the final quarter of 2024, and surpassing the BoE's forecast of 0.6%. In response to the data, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves acknowledged the presence of upcoming economic challenges but underscored the importance of recently secured trade agreements with the United States and India as key pillars for future growth. Sterling gained 0.2% to $1.327 against a sluggish dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.335(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3414(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3174(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3015(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Thursday despite strong Australian jobs data as investors took profits and awaited further market cues. Employment surged by 89,000 in April, far above the 20,000 forecast and the revised 36,400 gain in March, marking the biggest monthly increase in over a year. While the data eases the need for additional stimulus, markets still expect a rate cut next week as cooling inflation gives policymakers room to respond to global economic risks. The RBA held rates at 4.1% in April but signaled the May meeting as an opportunity to reassess monetary policy.At GMT 12:20, the Australia dollar was down 0.09% to 0.6403 against the US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6491(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6513(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6385(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6319(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against the yen on Thursday as dollar dipped ahead of retail sales data that could offer clarity on how U.S. consumers fared in the face of tariff risks, while excitement over a China-US trade deal faded. The greenback has given up most of its gains from Monday after the United States and China announced a 90-day pause on most of the tariffs imposed on each other's goods since early April, easing fears of a global recession. The dollar index =USD, which measures the U.S. unit against six other currencies, dipped 0.1%to 100.85, but on course to eke out a 0.4% gain for the week.Safe-haven currencies gained with the Japanese yen strengthening 0.6% to 145.94 per dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.55 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.48(My 12th high) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.95(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.53(61.8%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Thursday, dragged down by energy stocks, as investors awaited key economic data and comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
At GMT (11:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.17 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.03 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.24 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices erased early losses to steady on Thursday, supported by a weaker dollar and technical buying, as investors awaited key U.S. economic data later in the day for further clarity on the outlook for interest rates.
Spot gold was little changed at $3,179.07 an ounce as of 1102 GMT, after hitting its lowest since April 10 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $3,179.20.
Oil prices declined nearly $2 on Thursday amid optimism over a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal and unexpected growth in U.S. crude stockpiles, sparking fears of oversupply.
Brent crude futures were down $2.10, or 3.2%, to $63.99 a barrel at 1049 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down $2.16, or 3.4%, to $60.99.
