- NOK hit 13 year low vs USD at 8.4842, down nearly 2% after rate cut.
- EUR/USD holds onto recent gains. Plays between 1.1164/1.1223 levels.
- GBP edges up but still down around 2% on week, rate hike seen in 2nd half 2016.
- GBP/USD plays 1.5244/1.5285. EUR/GBP 0.7321 to 0.7239 range.
- Norway Central Bank cuts deposit rate to 0.75%.
- Norway Central Bank Gov-Rate path points to next rate cut in next 12 months.
- Germany October GFK consumer sentiment 9.6 vs previous 9.9. 9.8 expected.
- Germany September IFO business climate 108.50 vs previous 108.4 revised. 108.0 expected.
- Germany September IFO current condition 114 vs previous 114.8. 114.7 expected Expectations 103.3 vs previous 102.2.
- IFO economist- Effects of VW scandal not yet reflected in latest IFO survey.
- France Econ min- No evidence other carmakers used same software as Volkswagen.
- UK August BBA mortgage approvals 46.743k vs previous 46.315k revised.
- BoE Broadbent- Not surprised markets pushed back hike exp given global outlook.
- Bank of England to watch balance of payments risk from EU vote.
- Japan PM Abe sees end to years of persistent price declines.
- Abe will raise sales tax in April 2017 as planned.
- SSEC closes up 0.9% at 3,142.69 points.
- Tokyo's Nikkei share average closes down 2.76%.
- (0800 ET/1200 GMT) Brazil Unemployment rate, consensus 7.7%, previous 7.5%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US weekly unemployment claims.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Core Durable goods orders, consensus 0.2%, previous 0.4%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Durable goods orders, consensus -2.0%, previous 2.2%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Chicago Fed national activity index, Previous 0.34.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US New home sales, consensus 1.6%, previous 5.4%.
- (1030 ET/1430 GMT) EIA Natural Gas Storage change.
- (1500 ET/1900 GMT) Argentina Industrial production data.
Key Events Ahead
- (1245 ET/1645 GMT) Treasury Sec assistant of economic policy Karen Dynan speaks before the National Bureau of Economic research meeting, " Tax Policy and the Economic" in Washington.
- (1700 ET/2100 GMT) Fed Chair Jenet Yellen will hold a speech titled "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy" at the University of Massachusetts in Amherst.
FX Recap
EURUSD: The euro extended earlier gains on Thursday, after the German German IFO business survey for September surprised on the upside. The business climate survey in Germany for September strengthened slightly from 108.3 to 108.5, while a reading of 107.9 was anticipated. The attention now turns to US session, with the release of durable goods orders data and the jobless claims data, while the latest report on new home sales for August will follow later. It made intraday high at 1.1222 and low at 1.1164. Initial support is seen around at 1.1015 and resistance at 1.1560 levels. Option expiries are at 1.1100 (1.35BLN), 1.1185 (827M), 1.1200 (1.3B), 1.1215-25 (2.1BLN).
USDJPY: A data-quiet Asia, with liquidity flowing back in the markets as the Japanese markets re-opened after a long break. A renewed risk-aversion wave hit markets after the Nikkei dropped sharply, diminishing the bids for riskier currencies such as the US dollar. Traders shrugged of Japan's Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which fell from 51.7 in August to a preliminary 50.9 this month. Analysts expected the index to read 51.2 in September, however, the index held above the 50 mark, which indicates that the industry remains in expansion. Pair made intraday high at 120.39 and low at 119.80 levels. Initial resistance is seen at 123.20 and support is seen at 118.42 levels. Option expiries are at 119.00 (620M), 119.65 (465M), 120.00 (1.2B), 120.35 (415M).
GBPUSD: Sterling inched higher from a 2-week low against the dollar but was down around 2 pct for the week, as investors bet the BoE would wait until the second half of next year to raise interest rates. The pound rose 0.1 pct to $1.5262, not far from the 2-week low of $1.5221 touched the previous day. Against the euro, it was down 0.1 percent at 73.37 pence. After bottoming out in the 1.5200 neighbourhood on Wednesday, spot has staged a sort of comeback and is now flirting with the 1.5300 mark, amidst empty docket or scheduled events in the UK economy. Heading into the US session, traders will be looking to US durable goods orders data and last week's unemployment claims figures for further USD moves. Pair made intraday high at 1.5285 and low at 1.5237 levels. Initial support is seen at 1.5185 and resistance is seen around 1.5725 levels. Option expiry is at 1.5300 (213M).
NZDUSD: The New Zealand currency was lifted on Thursday after New Zealand milk cooperative Fonterra revised its payout forecast for the current season. Nevertheless, prices remain far below the record levels seen almost two years ago. Moreover New Zealand's merchandise trade deficit expanded to an 11-month high in August after imports rose sharply, led by a rise in transport equipment, including aircraft. The trade gap grew from $649 million in July to $1.04 billion last month, according to a report from Statistics New Zealand, coming in larger than the market forecast of $850 million shortfall. It made intraday high at 0.6308 and low at 0.6262 levels. Initial support is seen at 0.6195 and resistance at 0.6511 levels. Option expiry is at 0.6480 (300M).
AUDUSD: The pair was heading lower on Thursday and it was quickly fading toward the cycle low of $0.69. Industrial commodities like platinum, palladium, copper and oil were trading elevated on Thursday, but failed to spur any bullish momentum for the Aussie and it remained under pressure. Later in the session, US durable goods orders for August are due and are expected to drop sharply from July's levels. Moreover, US jobless claims and new homes sales will also be published. More importantly, Jenet Yellen will hold a speech titled "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy" at the University of Massachusetts in Amherst, which might be closely watched by traders. . It made intraday high at 0.7023 and low at 0.6941 levels. Initial support is seen at 0.6908 and resistance at 0.7245 levels. Option expiries are at 0.6950 (378M), 0.7000 (471M), 0.7100 (307M).
EURNOK: Norway's currency depreciated sharply against both against the euro and the dollar on Thursday, after the nation's central bank responded to a slowing economy with a 25 basis points rate cut. The Norges Bank trimmed its benchmark rate to 0.75% from 1.00% and left the door open for further easing. The krone fell to 9.4699 against the euro after the central bank board meeting; it's weakest since August, while it hit a 13-year low of 8.4593 versus the dollar, almost 2% lower. Pair made intraday high at 9.5054 and Low at 9.2230 levels. Initial resistance is seen at 9.5520 and Support at 9.1687.
Equities Recap
World shares dropped back towards two-year lows on growing unease about global growth, while emerging markets continued to trouble investor confidence.
Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 turned lower and was down 0.6 pct, Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 0.5 pct, Germany's DAX extended gains after IFO, up 0.4 pct. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.1 pct and France's CAC inched higher 0.1 pct in early deals.
Tokyo's Nikkei closed down 2.76 pct at 17,571.83, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.2 pct adding to their biggest single-day fall in almost a month the previous day. Shanghai Composite Index ended up 0.9 pct at 3,142.69 points and China's CSI 300 index closed up 0.7 pct at 3,285.00 points.
Commodities Recap
Oil steadied at around $48 a barrel on Thursday, as investors sought bargains after a sharp fall the previous day on an unexpectedly large buildup in U.S. gasoline stocks and a tepid demand outlook. Brent crude climbed 40 cents to $48.15 a barrel by 0943 GMT, after ending the previous session down $1.33. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 48 cents to $44.96 a barrel, having slumped $1.88 on Wednesday.
Gold rose for a second straight session, gaining 0.4 pct to $1,134.56, as Asian shares were subdued after a bruising selloff the previous day.
Treasuries Recap
JGB prices ended the day steady to slightly high Today, JGB yields moved little across the curve all through the session after opening modestly higher on the back of stronger German Bunds and US TSY after long holidays in Japan.er from last Friday's afternoon close in the 7-yr and longer zone, with the 5/s20s curve flattening by 1.5bp on the day.
German 10-year Bund yields were largely stable at 0.61 percent. Other euro zone bond yields were flat or slightly higher.
UK Dec Gilts have done very little this morning and are trading in the middle of the 118.59-118.81 range last at 118.78. Cash yields are 0.5bp higher across the curve however it does feel as if the downside is limited. The Gilt 02s/10s curve is marginally flatter by 0.25bp whereas the 10s/30s is 0.5bp flatter, so fairly subdued trading.
New Zealand government bonds eased, sending yields as much as 6 basis points higher on the short end of the curve. Australian government bond futures had a firmer tone, with the 3-year bond contract up 2 ticks at 98.150. The 10-year contract added 1.5 tick to 97.3150.Europe Roundup: Sterling edges up from 2-week low, New Zealand Dollar rallies after Fonterra - September 24, 2015.
