Market Roundup
•Italian Composite PMI (Nov): 47.7 forecast, 51.0 previous
•Italian Services PMI (Nov): 49.2, 51.1 forecast, 52.4 previous
•French S&P Global Composite PMI (Nov): 45.9, 44.8 forecast, 48.1 previous
•French Services PMI (Nov): 46.9, 45.7 forecast, 49.2 previous
•German Composite PMI (Nov): 47.2, 47.3 forecast, 48.6 previous
•German Services PMI (Nov): 49.3, 49.4 forecast, 51.6 previous
•EU S&P Global Composite PMI (Nov): 48.3, 48.1 forecast, 50.0 previous
•EU Services PMI (Nov): 49.5, 49.2 forecast, 51.6 previous
•UK Composite PMI (Nov): 50.5, 49.9 forecast, 51.8 previous
•UK Services PMI (Nov): 50.8, 50.0 forecast, 52.0 previous
•EU PPI (YoY) (Oct): -3.2%, -3.4% previous
•EU PPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, -0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov): 166K forecast, 233K previous
•13:30 Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q3): 0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•14:45 USD: S&P Global Composite PMI (Nov): 55.3 forecast, 54.1 forecast
•14:45 USD: Services PMI (Nov): 57.0 forecast, 55.0 previous
•15:00 USD: Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Oct): 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
•15:00 USD: Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Oct): 0.1% previous
•15:00 USD: Factory Orders (MoM) (Oct): 0.3% forecast, -0.5% previous
•15:00 USD: Factory Orders ex Transportation (MoM) (Oct): 0.1% previous
•15:00 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Nov): 57.2 previous
•15:00 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Nov): 53.0 forecast, 53.0 previous
•15:00 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Nov): 56.6 forecast 57.4 previous
•15:00 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov): 55.5, 56.0 forecast
•15:00 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Nov): 56.4, 58.1 previous
•15:30 USD: Crude Oil Inventories: -1.844M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•13:30 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased slightly on Wednesday as the market awaited a vote by French lawmakers on no-confidence motions which are all but certain to oust the fragile coalition of Prime Minister Michel Barnier. Attention also shifted to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is set to deliver what are anticipated to be his final public comments before the meeting on Wednesday. On economic front, data showed that political uncertainty hit France's services sector, while the euro zone's business activity fell sharply last month but was slightly ahead of a preliminary estimate. The single currency has decreased by 4% since early November, as investors began preparing for the anticipated tariff-laden policies from the incoming Trump administration .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0511(SMA 9), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0568(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0478(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0358(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound fell on Wednesday as Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said that modest interest rate cut were likely in the coming year. Following Bailey's statements at the Financial Times Global Boardroom event, the pound declined by up to 0.33% to $1.2630. However, it rapidly recovered and closed up 0.02% at $1.2675.On the data front, the S&P Global UK Services Purchasing Managers Index, which was published on Wednesday, showed that Britain's leading services sector lost steam in November, but not by as much as initially expected. The survey showed employment in the services sector fell for a second month, although the pace of decline was less marked than in October .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2735(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2789 (SMA 30).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2629(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2507(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar fell to a four-month low on Wednesday, as weaker-than-expected economic growth fuelled prospects of quicker interest rate by RBA. In the third quarter, Australia's economy grew at its slowest annual rate since the epidemic, disappointing hopes for a recovery as government spending did all of the heavy lifting and consumers remained cautious. According to data released on Wednesday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), real GDP increased by 0.3% in the September quarter, falling short of market expectations of 0.4%.Investors reacted by sending the Australian dollar down 0.7% to $0.6442. Markets moved to almost fully price in a rate cut next April at 96% from 73% before, and see a 35 basis points easing for May, from 28 bps before. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6483(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6491(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6406(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.63826(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against the yen on Wednesday, as media reports cast doubt on market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise interest rates this month. Analysts cited indications that the BOJ may avoid a rate hike at its forthcoming monetary policy meeting on December 18 and 19. While BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that the timing of the next interest rate hike was approaching, fueling increased expectations on a rate increase, media reports on Wednesday suggested that the central bank may take a more cautious attitude at its December meeting.As a result, market expectations for a rate hike in December went downward, with the possibility of a rate increase currently viewed as 42%, down from above 60% earlier in the week. This uncertainty surrounding the BOJ's policy outlook weighed on the yen, contributing to the dollar's strength. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.15 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.97 (50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.07(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.41(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Europe's benchmark index reached a nearly one-month high on Wednesday thanks to technology and car stocks, as investors prepared for a pivotal vote of no-confidence by French legislators that is expected to topple Prime Minister Michel Barnier's administration.
At GMT 12:55 ,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 0.21percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.75 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.39 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold held steady on Wednesday as safe-haven demand offset a slight recovery in the U.S. dollar, with markets waiting for U.S. jobs data and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for insights into the central bank’s policy direction.
By 1100 GMT, spot gold was unchanged at $2,644.48 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures edged down 0.1% to $2,666.30.
Oil prices were largely unchanged on Wednesday, as traders anticipated that OPEC+ would announce an extension of its supply cuts this week. Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical tensions continued to dominate market sentiment, contributing to uncertainty in the oil market.
By 1214 GMT, Brent crude futures rose by 5 cents, or 0.07%, to $73.67 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures edged down 4 cents, or 0.06%, to $69.90. Traders are awaiting an expected OPEC+ announcement on extending supply cuts, amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
