Market Roundup
•UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Apr): 20.16B, 18.00B forecast, 14.14B previous
• UK Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (GBP, Apr): 9.116B, 2.819B previous
• French Business Survey (May): 97, 99 forecast, 100 previous
• HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (May): 49.5, 48.9 forecast, 48.7 previous
• HCOB France Composite PMI (May): 48.0, 48.0 forecast, 47.8 previous
• HCOB France Services PMI (May): 47.4, 47.7 forecast, 47.3 previous
• HCOB Germany Composite PMI (May): 48.6, 50.4 forecast, 50.1 previous
•HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (May): 48.8, 48.8 forecast, 48.4 previous
•HCOB Germany Services PMI (May): 47.2, 49.6 forecast, 49.0 previous
•German Business Expectations (May): 88.9, 88.0 forecast, 87.4 previous
•German Current Assessment (May): 86.1, 86.8 forecast, 86.4 previous
•German Ifo Business Climate Index (May): 87.5, 87.4 forecast, 86.9 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (May): 48.4, 49.2 forecast, 49.0 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (May): 49.5, 50.7 forecast, 50.4 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (May): 48.9, 50.4 forecast, 50.1 previous
•UK S&P Global Composite PMI (GBP, May): 49.4, 49.3 forecast, 48.5 previous
• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (GBP, May): 45.1, 46.2 forecast, 45.4 previous
• UK S&P Global Services PMI (GBP, May): 50.2, 50.0 forecast, 49.0 previous
• UK S CBI Industrial Trends Orders (GBP, May): -30, -24 forecast, -26 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity (Apr): -0.03 previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,890K, 1,881K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 230K, 229K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 230.50K previous
•12:30 Canada IPPI (YoY) (Apr): 4.7% previous
•12:30 Canada IPPI (MoM) (Apr): -0.5%, 0.5% previous
•12:30 Canada RMPI (MoM) ( Apr): -2.2%, -1.0% previous
•12:30 Canada RMPI (YoY) ( Apr): 3.9% previous
•13:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI ( May): 49.9 forecast, 50.2 previous
•13:45 S&P Global Composite PMI ( May): 50.6 previous
•13:45 S&P Global Services PMI ( May): 51.0 forecast, 50.8 previous
•14:00 US Existing Home Sales ( Apr): 4.15M forecast, 4.02M previous
•14:00 US Existing Home Sales MoM ( Apr): -5.9% previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 118B forecast, 110B previous
•15:00 US KC Fed Composite Index -4 previous
•15:00 KC Fed Manufacturing Index -5 previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after data showed euro zone business activity unexpectedly slipped back into contraction this month.. The Eurozone economy is barely progressing, with recent surveys highlighting only lukewarm optimism among firms. Once the main growth driver, the services sector showed surprising weakness in May. Since the pandemic, Europe’s growth has lagged behind global peers like the U.S, with repeated setbacks to rebound predictions. Businesses remain cautious about investment, households hold onto savings, and governments have yet to implement the structural reforms needed to boost efficiency. The composite HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in May from 50.4 in April, slipping below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction and missing the 50.7 forecast. The decline was largely driven by the services sector, although economists warn that volatile U.S. trade policies may be skewing the data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1383(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1450(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1268(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1163(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound eased on Thursday eased slightly against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as investors digested the latest UK business activity data. The figures offered mixed signals on the health of the economy, prompting a cautious response from traders amid broader market uncertainty. The S&P Global UK Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a gauge of the private sector economy, rose to 49.4 from 48.5 in April, roughly as expected by economists. The UK manufacturing PMI fell to 45.1 from 45.4 and the jobs index for the sector sank to its lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK services PMI rose to 50.2 in May, up from 49.0 in the previous month, signaling a modest return to expansion.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3446(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3502(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3341(May 20th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3252(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar remained steady on Thursday, supported by ongoing weakness in the U.S. dollar as concerns about fiscal stability in the world’s largest economy continued to weigh on investor sentiment. The U.S. dollar extended its decline for the fourth consecutive session, while longer-term U.S. Treasury yields rose to their highest levels in 18 months, reflecting mounting uncertainty over the country’s economic prospects and fiscal direction.Market attention is sharply focused on President Donald Trump’s proposed tax bill, which is expected to come up for a vote in Congress later this week. Investors are growing increasingly uneasy about the potential impact of the legislation, which could add an estimated $3.8 trillion to the already massive $36 trillion national debt. This development has raised fresh concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and is contributing to the cautious mood in global financial markets. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6487(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6520(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6414(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6368(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar declined against the Japanese yen on Thursday as investors sought safety in the traditional haven amid growing concerns over the rising U.S. debt levels. Attention is focused on President Donald Trump’s tax bill, scheduled for a House vote within hours. The proposal has alarmed investors, with estimates indicating it could add around $3.8 trillion to the existing $36 trillion U.S. debt, intensifying fiscal worries.Investor caution was also visible on Wednesday during the U.S. Treasury Department’s $16 billion auction of 20-year bonds, which saw weak demand—a clear sign of heightened risk aversion. This subdued interest in government debt pushed yields higher, reflecting deepening concerns about the long-term sustainability of U.S. public finances and adding pressure on overall market sentiment. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.33 (Daily high)an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.27(50%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.72(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.24(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
European stocks declined on Thursday as worries about U.S. fiscal health pushed Treasury yields higher, while eurozone business activity unexpectedly slipped back into contraction..
At GMT (12:10) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.45 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.04 percent, France’s CAC was down by0.55 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped on Thursday after reaching a near two-week high, pressured by a stronger dollar, but concerns over the U.S. government’s rising debt kept prices above the $3,300 level.
Spot gold was down 0.3% at $3,303.82 an ounce, as of 1020 GMT, after hitting its highest level since May 9 earlier in the session.
Oil prices fell over 1% on Thursday amid reports that OPEC+ is considering a July production increase, raising fears that supply may outpace demand growth.
Brent futures lost $1.08, or 1.7%, to $63.83 a barrel by 1134 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $1.02, or 1.7%, at $60.55.
