US Officials See China Taiwan Invasion Before 2028 as Less Likely

U.S. officials increasingly believe China is unlikely to invade Taiwan before 2028, despite Chinese President Xi Jinping’s reported directive for the People’s Liberation Army to be capable of taking the island by force by 2027 if necessary.

People familiar with U.S. assessments said China’s military readiness has faced delays partly because of Beijing’s sweeping anti-corruption campaign. Chinese leaders may also prefer to wait for Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election, hoping it produces a government more receptive to closer ties with Beijing.

However, the risk of military action could increase after 2028 if Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party secures a fourth consecutive term, particularly if President Lai Ching-te wins reelection. Lai and the DPP emphasize Taiwan’s separate identity, while Beijing considers the island part of Chinese territory. Taiwan rejects China’s sovereignty claims and maintains that its people should determine their future.

The assessment marks a shift from longstanding concerns surrounding the PLA’s 2027 readiness target, which coincides with the military’s centenary. The benchmark has generally been viewed as a capability goal rather than a confirmed invasion deadline. China has repeatedly said it seeks peaceful “reunification” but has not ruled out using force.

U.S. intelligence said in its March annual threat assessment that Beijing did not have a plan at that time to invade Taiwan in 2027 and continued to prefer gaining control without military force if possible.

China’s military modernization has also been disrupted by Xi’s anti-corruption drive. Investigations and expulsions have removed numerous senior military officials, leaving only two active members on the previously seven-member Central Military Commission, including Xi.

U.S. officials believe China’s recent military exercises indicate the PLA still has readiness gaps. Beijing is also thought to have studied conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, drawing lessons about the importance of achieving objectives rapidly rather than becoming trapped in a prolonged war.

Despite the revised U.S. assessment, Xi has not abandoned the PLA’s 2027 capability target, and Beijing continues to pressure Taiwan while opposing U.S. weapons sales to the island.