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Europe Roundup: Euro edges higher against greenback , Gold climb to record high, Oil price steady-December 26th,2025

Market Roundup

• Silver topped $75/oz for the first time

•All precious metals headed for weekly gains

•Platinum and palladium soar beyond 8%   

•Oil heading for largest annual decline since 2020

•US targets Islamic State militants in Nigeria, no direct impact on oil infrastructure

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT) 

• 18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count  406 previous

•18:00 US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count  542 previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)  

•No Events Ahead

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD The euro edged higher, but gains were limited as investors focused on when the U.S. Federal Reserve might further cut interest rates and by how much. Traders are pricing in at least two rate cuts in 2026, though they do not expect the Fed to move before June.The central bank itself has projected one additional cut next year, but a divided Fed has kept investors on edge about the U.S. policy outlook. Markets are also awaiting President Donald Trump’s nomination of a new Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, with any signal of Trump’s decision likely to sway markets in the coming week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1793(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1828(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1731(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1680(50%fib).

GBP/USD:  Sterling traded in tight range on Friday as investors remained the sidelines ahead of the holiday period. With few fresh catalysts, trading conditions remained thin, although broader market sentiment continued to favor the U.S. dollar through the holidays.The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major peers, was on course for a 0.8% weekly decline its weakest performance since July—and was steady at 97.935 during Asian trading on Friday.On the geopolitical front, the United States is focused on enforcing a two-month “quarantine” on Venezuelan oil. Meanwhile, Washington carried out strikes against Islamic State militants in northwest Nigeria on Thursday following attacks on local Christian communities.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3499(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3529(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3405 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3338(50%fib).

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar extended gains on Friday  as optimism around a potential RBA rate hike in 2026 boosted the Australian dollar.Minutes from the RBA’s latest meeting released Tuesday showed policymakers laying the groundwork for a rate hike if inflation fails to ease as expected, underscoring the significance of the Q4 CPI data due on January 28.According to analysts, an upside surprise in Q4 core inflation could trigger a rate increase at the RBA’s February policy meeting.The RBA’s first policy meeting of the year is scheduled for February 3, with markets pricing in a 28% chance of a 25-basis-point hike to the 3.6% cash rate.   Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6695(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6726(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6654(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6609(38.2%fib)

USD/JPY: The dollar ticked up on Friday after Tokyo core inflation data showed price pressures easing but still running above the Bank of Japan’s target. December’s slowdown was driven by softer food costs, yet inflation remained consistent with expectations for further policy tightening. The figures echoed the BoJ’s guidance that core inflation could briefly fall below 2% as cost pressures ease before recovering on demand-led momentum. Tokyo’s core CPI increased 2.3% y/y, missing expectations of 2.5% and slowing from 2.8% previously. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.80(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at  155.91 (SMA 20)  a break below could take the pair towards 155.61 (38.2%fib).

Commodities Recap

Silver smashed through the $75 mark for the first time on Friday, with gold and platinum also rising to all-time highs, as bets on U.S. rate cuts and geopolitical jitters fueled investor demand.

Spot gold rose 0.6%to $4,505.30 per ounce, as of 1131 GMT, after touching a record $4,530.60 earlier, while U.S. gold futures GCcv1 for February delivery climbed 0.7% to $4,534..

Oil prices were steady in thin post-Christmas conditions on Friday, with investors weighing fresh geopolitical risks after the U.S. targeted Islamic State positions in Nigeria and intensified economic measures affecting Venezuelan oil.

Brent crude futures fell 16 cents, or 0.26%, to $62.08 per barrel by 1148 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 7 cents, or 0.12%, at $58.28.

 

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