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Europe is heading toward a significant jet fuel shortage in the fourth quarter, prompting buyers to source supplies from distant markets such as South Korea, the United States, Canada and Nigeria as Middle East disruptions reshape global fuel trade.
Energy Aspects estimates Europe will face a jet fuel deficit of about 510,000 barrels per day during the fourth quarter. By comparison, the United States is expected to record an 18,000-bpd surplus, while the Asia-Pacific region could have excess supply of 419,000 bpd. A similar imbalance has characterized the third quarter.
Europe’s supply pressure intensified after the Iran war disrupted Middle Eastern exports, historically responsible for roughly half of the continent’s jet fuel imports. Rising regional tensions continue to leave European aviation fuel markets vulnerable to additional disruptions.
South Korea has emerged as a major alternative supplier. European imports of South Korean jet fuel reached about 129,000 bpd so far in September, according to Kpler, marking the highest level since October 2022. LSEG shipping data showed comparable volumes.
James Noel-Beswick, head of commodities at Sparta Commodities, said European imports are likely to remain elevated while the region continues to face tight supplies. Stronger European fuel prices relative to Asian benchmarks are also making shipments from Asia increasingly profitable.
The supply crunch comes as jet fuel inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining and storage hub fell to a seven-year low in the week ending September 10. Jet fuel belongs to the middle-distillate category alongside diesel and gas oil, with European diesel prices also reaching record highs this week.
South Korea is well positioned to capitalize on Europe’s demand. The country produced nearly 13.89 million barrels of jet fuel in July, its highest monthly output in seven years, while exports climbed to a three-and-a-half-year high.
Higher refinery activity has supported the production increase. South Korean crude processing reached approximately 2.7 million bpd in July, up 16% from June, according to provisional government data. Traders expect stronger refinery runs to continue supporting jet fuel exports as Europe searches for additional supplies.
