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The possibility of a merger between Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and SpaceX gained fresh attention after Tesla’s second-quarter earnings call, with Deepwater Management’s Gene Munster increasing the odds of a deal taking place in the coming years.
In a post on X, Munster said he now sees a 90% chance of a SpaceX-Tesla merger, up from his previous estimate of 80%. He pointed to comments made during Tesla’s earnings call, where Elon Musk addressed an analyst’s question about combining the two companies instead of dismissing the topic outright.
Musk highlighted the growing collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX, particularly through Terafab, a chipmaking venture backed by both companies. He noted that the businesses are working together across multiple areas, reflecting increasing operational overlap.
“Obviously, we can’t talk about combining companies and that kind of thing on an earnings call. It’s got to be done with the appropriate process,” Musk said, signaling that any potential merger would require formal corporate and regulatory procedures.
Speculation has intensified since SpaceX’s June public market debut, which initially pushed the aerospace company’s valuation to about $2.6 trillion. Although its valuation has since dropped by roughly $1 trillion amid concerns over pricing and anticipated insider share sales, investors continue to debate whether closer integration with Tesla could unlock additional value.
The two Musk-led companies already maintain a significant commercial relationship. SpaceX uses Tesla’s battery storage systems to support its artificial intelligence data centers, while Tesla has integrated SpaceX’s Grok AI assistant into its vehicles. Tesla has also supplied vehicles to SpaceX, further strengthening ties between the businesses.
Musk has previously combined several of his companies. Most recently, xAI was merged into SpaceX before the rocket company's IPO. Tesla also acquired SolarCity in 2016, a transaction that faced shareholder litigation but was ultimately upheld in Musk’s favor in 2022.
Tesla shares fell nearly 4% in after-hours trading following its second-quarter earnings report, after the electric vehicle maker missed profit expectations and reported negative free cash flow, adding pressure to the stock despite renewed investor interest in a potential merger with SpaceX.
