EUR/PLN likely to reach 4.25 by end of Q2 this year, says Commerzbank

Despite strong manufacturing growth across most of the CEE countries, inflationary pressures are not emerging yet. Most of the headline CPI acceleration we have witnessed has been driven by large commodity price swings acting on top of a low base.

Underlying core inflation dynamics remain stable. This was once again highlighted by Czech import price data and Polish wage data yesterday. The latter has recorded 4 percent-plus year-on-year increase during all months this year, but as usual year-on-year growth numbers can include misleading base effects.

Seasonally adjusted wages fell by 0.3 percent m/m in April after increasing by 1.5 percent in March. In other words, April was a weak month for wage growth and this will likely impact household consumption. When extrapolating recent economic strength indefinitely into the future, this is precisely the kind of reversal the market should guard against.

"We see NBP remaining dovish, and forecast EUR-PLN to reach 4.25 by the end of Q2," Commerzbank commented in its latest research report.