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Emerging market Asian currencies are expected to remain gloomy, at least in the short term, and thus the ruble to remain weak, according to the latest research report from Commerzbank.
Russia today kicks off the publication of growth data for the 2nd quarter (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania will follow next Wednesday). At the end of July, the Russian Ministry of Economics announced its estimate: At 0.8 percent compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the rate is slightly higher than in the first quarter (+0.5 percent y/y), but all in all growth remains weak.
In addition, there is uncertainty about the reliability of the data after the revisions of fixed capital investments and construction activity. All in all, the GDP data - should they remain within expectations - should therefore not be able to offer any support to the ruble, the report added.
Meanwhile, the current correction in oil prices, but also the US sanctions, pose significant growth risks. If the new DASKA law is approved by the US Congress, President Donald Trump's discretionary scope with regard to sanctions affecting the entire Russian crude oil industry will increase significantly, Commerzbank further noted in the report.
