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ECB's challenges into December: two BoJ meetings, one US employment report

A combination of an increase in asset purchases and a deposit rate cut is seen as the most likely outcome of the December meeting. And from that perspective, expectations management is likely to be one of the key challenges for the Governing Council. The central bank will now have to tread carefully, because every benefit it saw from the dovish remarks today also implies a diminished impact of an actual move if the ECB fails to beat these expectations when actually decides to ease further. In other words, from now it will be more difficult to surprise the market.  

That is perhaps not a big problem when you are the only central bank in town. But, unfortunately it is not. By doubling up, the ECB has just underscored that it is a full participant in the global currency wars. And on that note, we still have two BoJ meetings to go before 3 December. And although a December Fed hike remains the base scenario, we could think of a postponement of that hike as being just two weak US employment reports away (with one of these reports being released the day after the Dec. ECB meeting).

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