Delayed But Decisive: November US CPI to Set Tone for Fed and Markets

Delayed by the earlier federal government shutdown that hampered BLS collection, US November CPI data is due today at 1:30 PM GMT (7:00 PM IST). Headline With September and consistent with the 0.1–0.4% monthly gains observed throughout Q3 amid resilient consumer spending and firm services inflation, CPI m/m is predicted at about +0.3%. Core CPI m/m (excluding food and energy) is projected in the +0.24%–+0.25% range, leaving core YoY near 2.99%, essentially unchanged around the 3.0% region that has permitted the Fed to ease gently after 75 bps of cuts in 2025.

Below the heading, energy and gasoline are the primary wild cards; recent refinery margin swings and seasonal winter demand give the month's print noise. These actions might somewhat counter still-positive shelter inflation, whereby a +0.2%–+0.3% monthly rise is forecast along with stabilization in used vehicle prices. Whether the data support the "cooling but sticky" inflation story that has ruled throughout late 2025 depends on the balance between these elements.

A softer or in‑line CPI print would support that narrative, feeding into today’s release of the December FOMC minutes and helping to shape expectations for the 2026 dot plot. Tariffs that are currently fueling import costs, nevertheless, could bring positive surprises and create a risk of a hotter‑than‑anticipated outcome. A stronger CPI might flatten the anticipated cuts trajectory, push real yields higher, and hence burden risk assets such BTC/USD as markets pricing about 85% chances of no extra Fed cut in January.