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Crypto Market Plunges: What's Behind Today's Major Drop?

Cryptocurrency market experiences sharp decline amidst record Bitcoin ETF outflows.

The cryptocurrency market saw a significant downturn today, with total market capitalization decreasing by 7.68% to $2.27 trillion. Bitcoin, leading the losses, fell about 7% to around $62,650, while Ether dropped by about 8% to $3,200.

Cryptocurrency Market Dips as Bitcoin ETFs Experience Record Outflows

The cryptocurrency market is down today, with total market capitalization dropping 7.68% to $2.27 trillion on March 19, Cointelegraph reported.

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is leading the losses, falling about 7% to around $62,650 on the day. Ether, Ethereum's native token and the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization fell by about 8% to $3,200 during the same period. Other top tokens performed similarly poorly.

Today's drop in cryptocurrency market capitalization coincides with the largest single-day outflow recorded from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

On March 18, the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF experienced its largest outflow, totaling $642.5 million. Meanwhile, Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF saw its lowest inflow day on record at $5.9 million, as per Farside Investors data. This led to a net outflow of $154.3 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Capital inflows to Bitcoin ETFs slowed ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 20.

As Cointelegraph previously reported, the potential 2024 bull run for Bitcoin and the crypto market is dependent on the Fed shifting from tight to loose monetary policy, which is likely if inflation falls below 3% or signs of an economic downturn emerge. Hence, the crypto market rally may falter if high interest rates persist.

Analyzing the Factors Behind the Crypto Market Correction Since March 14

Today's crypto market decline is part of a larger correction that began on March 14, when the market reached a local peak of approximately $2.72 trillion.

First, bearish divergence signals emerged before the correction, as the market's capitalization increased while the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) decreased. A bearish divergence indicates that price growth is losing underlying strength.

Second, the market's daily RSI reached excessively high levels before the correction, indicating overvaluation and leading to reduced trader demand due to perceived excessive prices.

Meanwhile, the sharp rise in Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) coincides with Bitcoin's rapid price increase, indicating a prime opportunity for profit.

Historical data show that NUPL values above 0.6 are rarely sustained before significant price adjustments occur. Thus, a noticeable correction is visible in March, with a more significant downside move possibly underway.

Derivatives Market Liquidations Exacerbate Cryptocurrency Price Decline

The sharp drop in the prices of major cryptocurrencies has triggered a flurry of liquidations in the derivatives market, catching bullish traders off guard and resulting in a quick round of long position liquidations.

Over the last day, the cryptocurrency market has seen over $182 million in positions liquidated, with long positions accounting for $140 million.

Such liquidations of long derivative positions can put downward pressure on asset prices, particularly when buying momentum from trading volumes is insufficient.

Photo: Microsoft Bing

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